November 5 Warm Election Day And Tropical Storm Rafael May Bring Needed Rain

November 5, 2024

Election Day Tuesday Morning Report

It’s still dry, but there are areas of fog and low clouds around the Chesapeake Bay and to the south. Today will be very warm, and tomorrow will be even warmer, near a record.

We will shift our focus to the new Tropical Storm Rafael. It is located near Jamaica this morning and is plotted to reach the northern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Computer models are split almost like the US electorate. One brings us much-needed rain by Sunday, while the other keeps us dry. Let’s take a look in this report.

Tropical Storm Rafael

Winds are up to 60mph as it moves near Jamaica, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in place. Forecast brings Rafael to hurricane strength before passing over western Cuba.

Tropical storm force winds reach 105 miles from the center.

National Hurricane Center Update at 4 AM EST

• LOCATION…17.0N 78.0W
• ABOUT 105 MI…170 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
• ABOUT 265 MI…425 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
• PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
• MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…993 MB…29.33 INCHES

Forecast Tracks

Computer Model Spread

This is very important! Notice the collection pushing the storm near and inland around New Orleans. That would support the GFS Model below bringing rain into the Eastern US this weekend.

National Hurricane Center

This keeps the storm center south of New Orleans. I would not argue with the NHC, but it is hard to ignore the potential for this to track north and inland.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…

* Cayman Islands

* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

* Jamaica

* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

* Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas

* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge

* Dry Tortugas

LOCAL WEATHER

Baltimore Drought Update

• No Measurable Rain Since October 2nd = 34 Days!
• There was a ‘trace’ on October 4th and November 1st.
• Rainfall DOWN -6.44” since Sep 1

Morning Surface Weather

Dense Fog may be more widespread across the lower Chesapeake Bay, but there are pockets of fog and low clouds across central Maryland to start the day….

It is more clear to the north in Southern PA.

Today will be very warm thanks to the increasing winds from the South ahead of a very strong cold front.

Election Day is already stormy from Houston to St. Louis and northward to Chicago.

Afternoon Forecast Temperatures

These numbers are close to 15 degrees ABOVE NORMAL!

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY November 5

Sunrise at 6:39 AM

Sunset at 5:01 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  39ºF

Record 24ºF in 1998

Normal High in Baltimore: 61ºF

Record 83ºF 1961

WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 6

Warmest Day Of The Week

Morning Lows

Afternoon Highs

Record High in Baltimore = 80ºF in 2015

Forecast Animations: Friday to Sunday

There is a VERY BIG DIFFERENCE between the American GFS Model and the European ECWMF Model. It all depends on what happens with TS Rafael.

I do need to note that the GFS has had the edge with tropical systems in recent months.

GFS Model Forecast

This solution has a small chance for showers on Thursday with the cold front but a solid surge of rain from Rafael. If this happens, it will not be tropical at that point, just much-needed rain into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.

Thursday Morning

Showers from the cold front dissipate.

Sunday Morning

Much-needed rain from the remnants of Rafael.

ECMWF Model Forecast

This solution has a better chance for rain Thursday, but nothing from Rafael… keeping that track in the Gulf towards Texas.

Thursday Morning

More showers with the cold front.

Sunday Morning

No rain, as this solution keeps Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico and NOT making landfall.

7 Day Forecast

After these warm days, the big question is if Rafael can bring us rain on Sunday. I am leaning towards the GFS model since it is similar to the majority of computer model guidance…

The result would bring us needed rain by Sunday morning.

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FIRST FROST DATES

Here are the average dates across Maryland, and they match the advisories we saw last week.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF