Conditions: Baltimore, Maryland, 10/11/2024 07:50:03 am
Temperature

38°

Clear

38°

Dew Point
Relative Humidity

100%

Feels Like

36°

Wind (VRB)

3mph

Air Pressure

30.19

Sun
Sun Rise

07:13 AM

Sun Set

06:33 PM

Day Length

11:20 Hours

Difference

2 min 29 sec loss

Moon
Moon Rise

03:31 PM

Moon Set

07:00 PM

Next: Full Moon

Oct 17,2024

Moon Phase

First Quarter

Climate
Average Low

47°

68°

Average High
Record Low

27°


(1964)

89°


(1954)
Record High
Conditions

September 17 Raining Through The Southeast From A Storm With No Name

Flooding
Maryland Weather
climate data
rain timeline
Forecast
Warnings

Tuesday, September 17 2024

Morning Report

There are some things that went wrong with the forecast this week. That storm that landed in South Carolina yesterday was never named. It had 50 mph winds at its peak and brought tremendous rainfall and flooding to the Southeast coast. Parts of North Carolina received OVER 18 inches of rainfall from this system.

Rainfall Total Past 72 Hours Ending Tuesday Morning

September 17 rainfall total North Carolina

 

However, it never became a full-fledged tropical storm! That would require convection (sustained storms) wrapped around the center. Instead, it was a regular Low Pressure with a cool and warm side/fronts. The difference was how much moisture it was able to hold AND how the remaining circulation would behave when arriving north during the week. This proves a storm does not need a name to do damage and some non-tropical storms can be worse.

The American GFS Model has it falling apart, and that looks like the better solution. The European ECMWF Model was more robust in holding it together with impact into the weekend. That does not look likely now, and I was wrong to put more emphasis on that. Neither model is 100% correct, but there does seem to be a winner here.

The Euro has an ongoing outstanding reputation, but the GFS upgrades do appear to have worked this time. I will focus on this going forward as it may be useful into the winter.

Coastal Flood Advisory

The extended Easterly Wind AND today’s Full Supermoon will keep the water levels up. Flooding is expected during the high tides.

Annapolis High Tides:

  • Today: 4:57 PM ; 5:18 PM
  • Wednesday: 5:43 AM; 6:12 PM

September 17 weather coastal flood advisory

Morning Surface Weather

The combination of High Pressure in New England and the old Storm in the Southeast US will increase the wind from an Easterly Direction. This brings in cooler, damp air, plus higher water on the beaches and in the Chesapeake Bay. Coastal Flood Advisories are in place.

We have a Full Supermoon today, which will enhance the high tide and flooding potential.

The old storm is less potent but still expanding the rain to the north. Showers will arrive later today and tonight.

September 17 weather Tuesday morning

WINDY INTERACTIVE WIDGET

Wind Forecast

Winds will be flowing from the East to Northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

September 17 weather winds Tuesday

 

Afternoon Snapshot

September 17 weather winds Tuesday afternoon

 

Afternoon Temperatures

September 17 weather temperatures Tuesday morning 

Rain Forecast 4 PM Tue to 6 AM Wed

Showers arrive in to central Maryland this evening with bands of heavier rain and maybe T’storm overnight.

September 17 weather rain forecast Tonight

 

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY September 17

Sunrise at 6:50 AM

Sunset at 7:11 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  59ºF

Record 44ºF in 1984

Normal High in Baltimore: 79ºF

Record 97ºF 1991

 

TODAY: SECOND OF FOUR FULL SUPERMOONS

Four Supermoons In A Row

See more about the 4 Supermoons Through November here:

4 Supermoons Of 2024

 

WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 18

Morning Temperatures

September 17 weather temperatures Wednesday morning

 

Afternoon Temperatures

September 17 weather temperatures Wednesday afternoon

Forecast Wednesday Morning Through Friday

Comparing the European ECMWF and American GFS Model

I will acknowledge my mistake. I leaned heavily on the European Model which had the storm stronger and lasting longer. The GFS Model had broken up the storm and lowered the rain totals a few days ago. It is now looking like it may be the better model this time.

 

ECMWF Model Forecast Animation

More widespread rain in the morning. Then breaking up, for a dryer Thursday.  This model is still trying to bring a coastal Low back (retrograding) Friday for Delmarva.

September 17 weather storm forecast rain ECMWF

 

 

GFS Model Forecast Animation

Heavier rain along the coast while breaking up the rain across inland areas. Still showing scattered showers late Wednesday and Thursday.

September 17 weather storm forecast rain GFS

RAINFALL POTENTIAL: Through The Weekend

European ECMWF Model

This product still has more rain.

September 17 weather rain forecast ECMWF

 

American GFS Model

This product continues to be substantially lower and looks like the winner this time.  This is worth remembering going forward through the season and into winter.

September 17 weather rain forecast GFS

 

7 Day Forecast

It looks like this storm is falling apart with less impact. That will allow the dry and cooler air to build in sooner.

September 17 weather forecast 7 day Tuesday

 

If You Missed It

Click here to see: NOAA Released Its Most Aggressive Hurricane Season Forecast

THANK YOU:

Baltimore Magazine Readers Choice Best Of Baltimore

 

Maryland Trek 11 Day 7 Completed Sat August 10

We raised OVER $104,000 for Just In Power Kids – AND Still Collecting More

The annual event: Hiking and biking 329 miles in 7 days between The Summit of Wisp to Ocean City.

Each day, we honor a kid and their family’s cancer journey.

Fundraising is for Just In Power Kids: Funding Free Holistic Programs. I never have and never will take a penny. It is all for our nonprofit to operate.

Click here or the image to donate:

 

 

Please share your thoughts and best weather pics/videos, or just keep in touch via social media.

 

RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF