Tropical Storm Warning With Helene Expected To Be Named Tonight

September 15 2024

Sunday Evening

Low pressure being tracked closely off the South Carolina coast has a high chance of being upgraded by the National Hurricane Center tonight. If so, it will be Helene, only the 8th named Atlantic storm this season.

The winds are already 45 mph, and tropical storm-force winds reach 175 miles from the center. The naming is based on the proper structure. It currently has frontal boundary structures (wake and cool sides) and may not completely lose them. It is possible it becomes a hybrid or subtropical.

The weather set up across the East Coast will enhance a persistent east wind, which will increase our moisture with cooler temperatures. It may also be combined with the Supermoon to raise water levels in the Chesapeake Bay, increasing the potential for flooding.

UPDATE MONDAY MORNING

NHC has not named the storm yet. It may run out of time before landfall, but it is still expected to have the same impact.

Click here for the newer Monday Morning Report.

UPDATE TUESDAY MORNING

This storm had 50 mph winds with 70 mph gusts on coastal NC. It brought extensive flooding with spots over 15 inches of rainfall…but it NEVER GOT NAMED! IT WAS NOT A FULL TROPICAL SYSTEM. IT WAS ‘NOT’ HELENE. The inland forecast for rain has been lowered in the Mid Atlantic. 

Click here for the Tuesday Morning Report

Sunday Night Weather

This storm has two things going for it. First, it is sitting in a favorable area over the warm water of the Gulf Stream. This will provide the fuel needed to become tropical. Secondly, this week is the peak of a normal hurricane season.

What it has going against it is time and space. The upper-level wind flow will move this onshore by Monday night. It will not last long, but it still could bring 3 to 6 inches of rainfall along its path.

Satellite Loop

Notes: Tropical Storm Force winds extend 175 miles away from the center.

Recap Of The 2024 Atlantic Tropical Season So Far:

Named Storms

• Alberto June 19 to 20; Peaked As Tropical Storm
• Beryl June 28  11; Peaked As Cat 5 Hurricane
• Chris June 30 to July 1; Peaked As Tropical Storm
• Debby August 3 to 9; Peaked as a Category 1 Hurricane
• Ernesto August 12 to 20; Peaked As Cat 2 Hurricane
• Francine September 9 to 12; Peaked As Cat 2 Hurricane
• Gordon September 11 to (still going); Tropical Storm

National Hurricane Center Report

• SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
• LOCATION…32.1N 77.8W
• ABOUT 140 MI…225 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
• PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
• MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

Infrared Satellite Snapshot

National Hurricane Center Forecast Track

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

* Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina

WINDY LIVE WIDGET

Monday Morning Forecast Map: European ECMWF Model

The onshore flow FROM THE EAST will be enhanced by High Pressure in New England and the (expected) Tropical Storm Helene in the Southeast US. Rip currents and beach erosion will be widespread along the East Coast. Flooding is possible into the Chesapeake Bay.

Storm Forecast European ECMWF Model Monday Through Friday

(Daily snapshots below)

Storm Expectations

WIND: 

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area beginning late tonight.

STORM SURGE: 

South Santee River, SC to Oregon Inlet, NC… 1-3 ft

Neuse and Bay Rivers, NC… 1-3 ft

Pamlico and Pungo Rivers, NC… 1-3 ft

RAINFALL:

3 to 6 inches along the path with up to 8 inches in northeastern South Carolina.

Computer Model Forecasts Snapshots

Tuesday

Wednesday

Wednesday (closer)

Thursday

Friday

Rainfall Potential Through Friday

ECWMF Model

GFS Model

This solution has cut back on the rain farther north into the Mid-Atlantic.

If You Missed It

Click here to see: NOAA Released Its Most Aggressive Hurricane Season Forecast

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF