July 7 Hot But Less Humid Today And T.S. Beryl Expected To Hit Texas As A Hurricane Tomorrow
Sunday July 7, 2024
Morning Report
Baltimore hit 100ºF yesterday for the second time this summer. The latest numbers for BWI also show 17 days at or above 90ºF. Today we will add another to the list, but the humidity will be down a notch to make it a little more tolerable.
The heat will remain as we increase the humidity during the week. This is thanks in part to the inland push of Beryl and may bring welcome rain from thunderstorms to our region for many days. Here is a brief look at the system with the full analysis and forecast below.
Tropical Storm Beryl
While still holding with winds of 60 mph, the satellite is looking more organized. The wind field reaches out 125 miles.
Rain has reached Texas, totaling between 5 and 15 inches. The Storm Surge may reach up to 6 feet near the eye at landfall. This is the same area that Alberto affected a few weeks ago AND has been subjected to flooding rains for months.
More on this storm below.
Today’s Weather
Hot but not as humid today. Some added cloud cover may help early on.
Relief will be slow and trade-off with more storms during the week. As Beryl makes landfall on the Texas coast Monday, some of that moisture may influence our weather in the week ahead.
Morning Temperatures
Afternoon Temperatures
Radar Simulation Snapshot at 4 PM
Radar Simulation
Not much activity today.. But there is a 20% chance of isolated thundershowers developing on Delmarva between 4 PM and 8 PM.
CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore
TODAY July 7
Sunrise at 5:48 AM
Sunset at 8:35 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 68ºF
Record 53ºF in 1980
Normal High in Baltimore: 89ºF
Record 104ºF 2012
Drought Monitor
MONDAY JULY 8
Morning Temperatures
Afternoon Temperatures
Tropical Storm Beryl
There has not been much change since yesterday, but the satellite is starting to show more organization. As the circulation improves, Beryl is forecast to regain Hurricane intensity before making landfall on the Southeast Texas Coast tomorrow. It may reach winds up to 85 mph, making it a Category 1 storm.
It will move inland through Texas and up the Mississippi River Valley, and towards the Great Lakes. The widespread impact will increase tropical moisture across the Eastern US all week ahead.
Morning Satellite Loop
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…25.3N 94.6W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…995 MB…29.39 INCHES
LIVE RADAR and LIGHTNING WIDGET
Computer Model Forecast Intensity
Not all members show it, but it is still expected to briefly become a Category 1 Hurricane again this weekend.
National Hurricane Center Forecast Track
Close View
The storm’s northward turn has delayed its landfall, now expected to occur between Corpus Christi and Houston on Monday afternoon.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* The Texas coast from Baffin Bay northward to San Luis Pass
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* The Texas coast south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio Grande River
* The Texas coast north of San Luis Pass to Galveston Island
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The Texas coast south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio Grande River
* The Texas coast north of San Luis Pass to High Island
* The northeastern coast of mainland Mexico from Barra el Mezquital to the mouth of the Rio Grande River
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* North Entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore to High Island, including Corpus Christi Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* The Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande River northward to North Entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore
* High Island to Sabine Pass
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* The Texas coast east of High Island to Sabine Pass
Wind Arrival Forecast
STORM SURGE:
The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
- Mesquite Bay, TX to San Luis Pass, TX…4-6 ft
- Matagorda Bay…4-6 ft
- San Luis Pass, TX to High Island, TX…3-5 ft
- N Entrance Padre Island NS, TX to Mesquite Bay, TX…3-5 ft
- Corpus Christi Bay…3-5 ft
- Galveston Bay…3-5 ft
- Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to N Entrance Padre Island NS, TX…2-4 ft
- High Island, TX to Sabine Pass, TX…2-4 ft
- Sabine Pass, TX to Cameron, LA…1-3 ft
Wide View
Moving inland, this will be downgraded to a Tropical Depression east of Dallas on Tuesday. Then, the remaining (ghost) Low will push near Chicago on Thursday and into Michigan on Friday.
HWRF Model Forecast Track
Local Impact: Tuesday to Saturday
We can see some influence from Beryl adding tropical moisture along the frontal boundary… This may slow down or stall on Thursday and Friday. We will NOT get the storm in an organized form, but we will see daily thunderstorms each day.
Next weekend is when we may finally get some relief.
Snapshots
Wednesday
Thursday Morning
Thursday Night
Friday Afternoon
7 Day Forecast
Remaining hot in the week ahead with more moisture and daily thunderstorms developing. The impact of Beryl will reach us on Thursday and Friday.
Please share your thoughts and best weather pics/videos, or just keep in touch via social media
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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF