Hurricane Beryl Winds 165 mph Earliest Category 5 In Atlantic On Record: Track To US Next Week

Tuesday, July 2, 2024

Last night, Hurricane Beryl became a record breaker when it reached Category 5, the earliest on record in the Atlantic. This is the second time it has happened in July, but it beats the prior record of July 17, 2005, with Hurricane Emily. Note that it was a record-setting season, and this is expected to be very busy as well.

Beryl passed Grenada’s Carriacou Island on Monday with 150 mph winds, the strongest on record dating back to 1851.

This morning, this major hurricane is at its peak with 165 mph winds. Less than 1% of hurricanes reach Category 5 intensity, and very warm water is the biggest reason for this.

Now, the eyes are on the Caribbean, with Jamaica in the path and Mexico near or south of Cancun. While some fluctuation in intensity is expected today, Beryl is expected to slowly weaken a little. After landing and crossing Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, it will reemerge over water and might turn towards Texas early next week. This is when we could track the moisture inland and potentially toward the US Mid-Atlantic next week.

Morning Satellite Snapshot

6 AM EDT

This is not a large storm. Hurricane-force winds extend 40 miles from the center. Tropical Storm force winds reach 125 miles from the center.

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION

• LOCATION…14.6N 66.9W
• ABOUT 370 MI…595 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
• ABOUT 695 MI…1120 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…165 MPH…270 KM/H
• PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH…35 KM/H
• MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…935 MB…27.61 INCHES

Hurricane Beryl Forecast Track and Intensity

Hurricane Beryl Forecast Track and Sea Surface Temperature

Hurricane Beryl Computer Model Forecast Intensity

Tropical IR Satellite Loop 4 Hours

National Hurricane Center Forecast Track

Here, we see Jamaica next in line and why it has a Hurricane Warning in place. It is expected to hit as a Major Hurricane, but a lower Category. While remaining a hurricane, it may drop to a Cat 1 or 2 when it reaches Mexico near or SOUTH of Cancun on Friday morning.

After crossing the Yucatan Peninsula, it will weaken and then reemerge over the Bay of Campeche as a Tropical Storm.

This is where it may turn northwest toward Texas… but could remain a tropical storm… If it strengthens again, it might reach back to Category 1 hurricane intensity.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…

* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…

* Grand Cayman

* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti

* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d’Hainault

HWRF Model PLOTS

Computer Model SIMULATED Surface and Wind Speed

Tue July 2 to Sun July 7

Computer Model SIMULATED Satellite

Tue July 2 to Sun July 7

Long Range Computer Model Forecast Tracks

Going beyond 5 days, the forecast accuracy decreases. However, the trend does pull Beryl north towards Texas… The remaining moisture could get pulled north inland and eventually towards the East Coast.

LONG RANGE  POTENTIAL:

GFS Model Plot Sunday Morning To Tuesday Evening

Note: The model is different than the tropical models seen above.. so the timing may be different. The biggest factor will be the timing and location of the inland cold front and jet stream trough. Where it will be located AND where Beryl will be will both determine the influence of tracking inland.

The final landfall may be close to Houston Texas in a diminished form. At this point we may see it as a Tropical Storm or Category 1 Hurricane…. Then the moisture could get picked up by the Cold Front/Trough to the North.  This is what could pull the tropical moisture inland and towards the Mid-Atlantic early next week.

Snapshot ‘SUGGESTIONS’

Monday Morning, July 8

Monday Night July 8

If You Missed It: Click To See

5 Tornadoes Confirmed In Maryland (so far) on June 5

June 5 Storm Report (Preliminary) With Videos And Photos 

Hurricane Season Outlook

Click to read: NOAA Releases Most Aggressive Outlook

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF