Update On Storm Risk Wednesday Evening And Night June 26

Wednesday Afternoon June 26 2024

An approaching cold front bumping up against temperatures in the 90s is a recipe for storms to erupt and possibly turn severe. As of post time (4:45 PM), there are no local watches in place. However, there is still the SLIGHT RISK for severe storms issued by NOAA.

Storms may produce flash flooding, wind gusts over 58 mph, large hail over 1 inch in diameter, or an isolated tornado. Any storm can produce dangerous lightning.

NOAA Severe Storm Risk

Alert Reminder

A ‘WATCH’ may be issued if the ingredients become evident for a good chance of severe storms developing within six hours.

A ‘WARNING’ will be issued when a storm of this caliber is identified. This has happened already in Maryland, not in the Watch yet…. The ‘warning’ will include tracking in a county and specific towns for the following 45 minutes.

Live Radar Widget

Compare to the forecast maps below.

Surface Weather: Wednesday Afternoon

The cold front is very active across the Lower Great Lakes into Northern Pennsylvania. However, its arrival in the Mid-Atlantic after dark may reduce some of its extreme potential.

Both model forecast ‘suggestions’ below differ in the afternoon and evening storms but agree on the heavier rain overnight… ending by morning.

Temperatures at 4 PM

Doppler Radar at 4 PM

The action was split into two areas.. but not a complete line. This is important to note when viewing the forecast maps below.

NAM 3Km 4 PM Model Forecast

This was the ‘suggestion’ for the 4 PM time frame:

Note it was over producing a more identifiable line. This suggests to me this product may be overplaying the activity… but worth looking at.

Radar Simulation: 4 PM WED  to 8 AM THU

Snapshots

6 PM

Midnight

COMPARE TO THE HRRR Model

Radar Simulation: 4 PM WED  to 8 AM THU

This suggestion shows a different solution. It brings activity to metro Baltimore around sunset, followed by the cold front and main rain before midnight.

9 PM

11 PM

Thursday

After an early shower and leftover clouds, a wind shift from the North will bring in a cooler and less humid air mass.

Morning Temperatures

Wind Forecast: 6 AM to 4 PM

Afternoon Temperatures

Looking Ahead Storm Forecast: Saturday to Monday

Saturday Evening

After a hot day, storms may be strong to severe in the evening and overnight.

Sunday Afternoon

A cooler day may limit the severe risk, but it may end up more cloudy and wet.

7 Day Forecast

Relief after the heat and storms today…

If You Missed It: Click To See

5 Tornadoes Confirmed In Maryland (so far) on June 5

June 5 Storm Report (Preliminary) With Videos And Photos 

Hurricane Season Outlook

Click to read: NOAA Releases Most Aggressive Outlook

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF