Severe Thunderstorm Watch Sunday Evening June 23 With Storms Expanding Into Maryland

Sunday Afternoon June 23 2024

New high temperatures were already reached today. Baltimore hit the old mark of 97ºF at noon. This has provided of plenty of fuel for strong storms to form this evening. An approaching cold front has set up some ripples in the atmosphere that are producing lines of showers and thunderstorms. Some of these in the region have already promoted severe weather warnings, with more possible into the evening. NOAA has set part of our region in the Slight Risk for storms to turn severe, and I wanted to share a brief update on the late afternoon set up and possible play to tonight.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

This is for the potential of storms turning severe. NOAA posted this for Pennsylvania, but severe storms have already been identified in Maryland, so this map may get updated.

Storms may produce flash flooding, wind gusts over 58 mph, large hail over 1 inch in diameter, or an isolated tornado. Any storm can produce dangerous lightning.

A ‘WARNING’ will be issued only if a storm of this caliber is identified. This has happened already in Maryland, not in the Watch yet…. This ‘warning’ will include tracking in a county and specific towns for the following 45 minutes.

NOAA Severe Storm Risk

(from this morning)

Radar Recap 2:30 PM to 4:30 PM

Watch as the thunderstorms begin to pulse and develop along a line.. moving to the Northeast.

Live Radar Widget

Compare to the forecast maps below

Sunday Evening Surface Weather

The cold front is still way west in Ohio, but the ripples or waves in the atmosphere are what is helping to produce bands of showers and thunderstorms. The atmosphere has enough heat and spin to produce high cloud tops and the sheer to rotate.

Radar Snapshot at 5 PM

This is more active than the best perfuming short range model (seen below) which is why I expect more action than model guidance suggests.

Radar Forecast at 5 PM

Repeating what I stated above… This is underplaying what has been shown, so we can expect more action than shown in the forecast below. That is what it is a SUGGESTION.

Radar Simulation 5 PM to Midnight

Snapshots

7 PM

8 PM

10 PM

Monday

A break from the heat as morning showers and clouds may linger.

Morning Temperatures

Afternoon Temperatures

Radar Simulation 6 AM to 8 PM

Morning showers across Lower Delmarva…

Then, some pop-up showers in the afternoon and evening. But they will be isolated.

Looking Ahead: Tuesday To Thursday

A round of strong to severe storms can be expected to arrive later on Wednesday as the next cold front bumps up the heat and humidity again.

Snapshots

Wednesday Evening

Thursday Morning

Thursday Afternoon

7 Day Forecast

The heat will break briefly today, with a noticeably cooler day on Monday. Then, it will be back in the 90s and humid by midweek. The next round of storms may be severe on Wednesday as the next push of cooler air arrives.

If You Missed It: Click To See

5 Tornadoes Confirmed In Maryland (so far) on June 5

June 5 Storm Report (Preliminary) With Videos And Photos 

Hurricane Season Outlook

Click to read: NOAA Releases Most Aggressive Outlook

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF