Friday June 14
Morning Report
Today is Flag Day, and the increasing wind and evening storms may help give them a workout. Today, we will notice the increase in humidity along with high temperatures. The 90s will be breached near and south of Baltimore. A cold front will be approaching from the North, bringing the risk for severe storms near and North of Baltimore. Yes, the city will be on the edge of both.
The setup supports the risk for storms to produce damaging winds and large hail. However, the short-range model simulations are flawed. I have low confidence in the output, so the best I can suggest is a wide range of times to pay attention to what is developing and on the move.
In PA, we will watch for storms entering the region after 2 PM. In metro Baltimore, an isolated afternoon shower may pop up, but the main risk will be between 8 PM and midnight.
This weekend will be pleasant with lower humidity. Then, next week, a true heat wave will move through.
The increased humidity is noticeable early…
The Slight Risk is Level 2 of 5, and mainly near and north of Baltimore into Pennsylvania.
Potential for: Winds over 58 mph, large hail over 1-inch diameter, isolated tornados.
Compare to the forecast simulations below.
The heat and humidity will feed into the cold front.
IMPORTANT: I have low confidence in this solution. There have been many plots for the storms later that do not match up.
Time Frame: Starting After 2 PM Through Midnight.
This shows the main cluster north of Baltimore around sunset.
A very different setup with two lines of storms.
Sunrise at 5:40 AM
Sunset at 8:34 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 62ºF
Record 46ºF in 1978
Normal High in Baltimore: 84ºF
Record 98ºF 1994
A pleasant air mass sets us up for a nice weather weekend. Temperatures will be near average, along with lower humidity and plenty of sunshine.
Briefly cooler and pleasant this weekend.
Likely pushing into the mid-90s and lasting for a few days. This may be our first legitimate heat wave of the year.
After a pleasant weekend, our first heat wave of the year is expected next week. The risk of rain will be low.
June 5 Storm Report (Preliminary) With Videos And Photos
Click to read: NOAA Releases Most Aggressive Outlook
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
