Thursday February 23 2023
The weather is weird. Yes, that is my professional meteorological statement to lead off this report. I truly was not sure which was more weird, getting to the 80s in February around Washington DC while snow is forecast in just less than two days, or the actual snow falling around Los Angeles with Blizzard Warnings in effect for Southern California into the weekend. I know this sounds like a scene from the movie The Day After Tomorrow, but this is not the End Times. Just weird!
The two feet of snow in Minnesota and ice storm around Detroit are almost afterthoughts.
Well, I will start and finish with our local Mid Atlantic weather, but I must give more than a nod and context to the LA (County) Blizzard. It has happened before.
I began to suggest we could get this record last week. I know this is not as glamorous as a snow forecast, and it will not erase the lack of winter events this winter, but today’s temperatures should not have been a surprise.
The shock is that for Baltimore, it broke the old mark set back in 1874. That was 149 years ago.
Baltimore reached 79ºF. However, the all time warmest day for the month was 83ºF on February 25, 1930. So, we have had ‘more heat’ before. Just a very long time ago, but it is rare indeed.
Washington DC did reach the 80s, breaking the mark from that same date in Baltimore.
Normally a new record high temperature in February would just be ‘warm’ but it was actually hot.. for some… away from the water. The Chesapeake Bay is currently 53ºF, so nearby areas were held back in the 60s. This included Baltimore’s Inner Harbor, coastal Baltimore County, and near Annapolis.
There are too many to mention in this report, but I wanted to share one more info-graph from NWS in Raleigh, NC.
Temps will be noticeably colder in the morning. This is the next phase that will lead to some snow on Saturday. I will get to that in a moment.
This video captured my attention and the essence of the weather. Palm Trees and The Hollywood Sign blurred by falling snow.
Snow in LA!! Who wants to build a snowman? #snowinla #hollywoodsign #snowing pic.twitter.com/DRgaBhzLiT
— Craig Robert Young (@craigryoung) February 23, 2023
The snow levels were lower than projected, but in the mountains above 3,000 Ft in elevation there was stickage! Again, more is on the way…
Blizzard like conditions in the mountains today above Los Angeles. Heavy snow fell on the Angeles Crest Highway above the city of La Crescenta. #snow #blizzard #SouthernCalifornia #weather #rain #winter pic.twitter.com/4iv0Hlb9pw
— Ted Soqui (@TedSoquiPhoto) February 23, 2023
I am showing this photo of snow long ago, because it was the winter of 1949 to 1950 when Baltimore had its ONLY winter with UNDER 1 inch of snow (0.7”). Sounds similar to this season.
Blizzard like conditions in the mountains today above Los Angeles. Heavy snow fell on the Angeles Crest Highway above the city of La Crescenta. #snow #blizzard #SouthernCalifornia #weather #rain #winter pic.twitter.com/4iv0Hlb9pw
— Ted Soqui (@TedSoquiPhoto) February 23, 2023
A COLD STORM PATTERN is locked along the Pacific Coast. This will send another Winter Storm into southern California Friday and Saturday.
These include the mountains of Southern California (also surrounding Las Vegas).
A winter storm is serious for any region, but it seems the rarity here has promoted this statement from San Diego of all places!
ECMWF Model: Friday Morning to Sunday Morning
This is the winter storm that will slam into California on Friday.
The leading edge of colder air will be here in the morning.
Strong winds from the Northwest will bring the reality check back in, holding temps near average into the afternoon.
While winds will average 10 to 20 mph, we will have gusts to 30 mph. After near 80ºF today, it will definitely FEEL Chilly!
Notice that the freeze will reach through Maryland with 20s in Baltimore to near 30ºF in Salisbury and Ocean City.
This will be roughly 50 DEGREES COLDER than Thursday Afternoon!
This is more for ambience and contrast to what we just had. Not a pop up storm.
This is the more aggressive GFS Model. It is taking a jet stream with a little convergence aloft to bring a band of snow into central and southern Maryland on Saturday.
This model has been the most aggressive and overdone much of this winter. I wanted to show the worst case scenario to start to make this point: The bulk is expected between 8 AM to 2 PM. If that verifies, it will be fighting the residual warm ground AND day sun angle. Stickage will be limited to the grass at best.
This model may be a little underdone. It keeps the SPLIT FLOW with southern Maryland getting a band of light snow or flurries, then another across metro New York. Again, challenged by the warm ground and daytime sun angle.
Wild weather has been documented throughout our relative short 150 years of weather records. There are many examples but the most dramatic was this:
When I was researching this, it became evident that the extreme warmth here in the east all winter, and the extreme snow and cold in the Western US have occurred before. That does not take away the rarity. It may, however, bring some comfort that we will not be fighting off wolves on top of 50 foot frozen tidal waves in New York City. That movie was fiction but I am sure it will be referenced many more times over the next few days.
I have been anticipating a pattern change all winter that has not happened. My concern remains that the end of La Niña will allow that shift just in time for our spring to end up cooler.
NO!
However, there was one winter with UNDER 1” in 1949 to 1950
Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts
See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.
Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school 
