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August 31 Some Storms Today Then Ida Brings Flooding And Severe Weather Wednesday

Forecast

Tropics

Justin Berk

Aug 31, 2021

7:01 am

Tuesday August 31 2021

The remains of Ida are set to arrive Wednesday morning with rain. The heavy rain, likely flooding, and potential severe storms with tornados will arrive by evening and overnight.

Before all of that, we have some showers and thunderstorms today to plot out. After all of that, much cooler and more pleasant temperatures will settle in for the holiday weekend.

Morning Surface Weather

The core remnant Low of ‘Ida’ is not longer tropical, but we will still refer to the name. It is located in northern Mississippi. That core is forecast to move through central Maryland Wednesday night.

The cold front locally will be responsible for showers and storms today.

Today: Radar Simulation Noon To Midnight

This product has consistently underperformed with short range storm coverage. I will have a mid day update that may show more storms.

August-31-storm-radar-forecast-tuesday-morning-update

Afternoon Temperatures

This map may help explain the wide range of conditions in our region. All places near 80ºF or in the 70s are also expected to get the most rain from Ida.

Places in the mid 80s or higher are more likely to get severe storms from Ida.

Weather Almanac: Climate Data

TODAY August 31

Normal Low in Baltimore: 63ºF

Record 49ºF in 1986

Normal High in Baltimore: 83ºF

Record 102º F 1953

Wednesday Weather With Ida

ECWMF Snapshot

The core Low will pass through central Maryland close to midnight.

Rain will spread ahead in the morning, with increasing intensity and heavier bands or cells through the evening and overnight.

*Animation Below

Severe Storm Risk

This is a level 2 out of 5 for cells with gusts over 60 mph and or tornados.

Flash Flood Watch

This as been adjusted to begin at 8 AM

The heaviest rain will arrive later in the day and overnight.

ECMWF Storm Animation:

Here we see the rain from Ida arriving on Wednesday, well ahead of the center passing through Maryland Thursday morning.

The heaviest rain is forecast to reach into central PA, but I have verification of recent storms to the south. I think we still need to watch that core rain field.

August-31-ida-forecast-ecmwf-tuesday-morning