Saturday August 31 2019 at 5:45 PM

Hurricane Dorian remains on the upper edge of Category status with 150 mph winds. The structure looks as strong and healthy as possible as it moves to the west. The Bahamas are evacuating now. New Tropical Storm Watches are in place for parts of Florida. State of Emergency in place for South Carolina.  But new forecast guidance has the storm turning north before the coast and heading closer to North Carolina.

Let’s start with a look at the satellite images. Loops for both the Infrared and Visible are below.

Hurricane Dorian Infrared Satellite at 5 PM

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Hurricane Dorian Headlines

• Winds 150 mph, Category 4
• Tropical Storm Force Winds extend 105 miles form the center
• Hurricane Force Winds extend 30 miles form the center
• Bahamas: Warning for NW islands and evacuations now. Expecting deadly 15 Ft Storm Surge and up to 25 inches of rain
• Forecast turns north before Florida. Tropical Storm Watch for the coast and Brevard County evacuations 8 AM Sunday. Storm surge and impact still along the coast with rain, winds, and high waves!
• Many airports in Florida are planning to close due to stronger winds aloft
• Forecast leans toward North Carolina possible landfall still needs to be considered not a sure thing yet. Each run shows a shift of the forecast on the right side of the cone. That has been the most consistent thing with Dorian.
• Ocean City: Forecast curves east by over 150 miles on Friday. Rain and wind from outer bands could reach there Thursday. Still worth watching for adjustment

Hurricane Dorian Infrared Satellite Loop

The colder, higher cloud tops are colored in dark red and white.

Hurricane Dorian Visible Satellite at 5 PM

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 74.4W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

Hurricane Dorian Visible Satellite Loop

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Forecast Maps

HWRF Model Animation

This model shows the turn to the north over the Bahamas, then heads toward the South Carolina coast and hugs it. This is farther west than the NHC and European which keeps to offshore from SC.

Wind Arrival Forecast

Due to the slow down and turn well east of Florida, the tropical storm force wind arrival times have changed. It looks like Monday morning for coastal Florida. Tuesday for north Florida and Georgia. Wednesday for South and North Carolina.

National Hurricane Center Forecast Tracks

The intensity will weaken due to cooler waters to the north. If this hits North Carolina, it is expected to be down to a Category 2. However, there is wave memory in the ocean for a few days, so the waves, surge, and rip currents will still behave like a stronger storm.

North Carolina Timing

While the Tropical Storm force winds will be moving in Wednesday. The eye of Dorian wil be passing by the coast Thursday afternoon and evening. These areas will be in storm mode for at least two days.

European ECMWF Model Forecast

This keeps the eye offshore from all of North Carolina. Close enough for destructive waves, wind, and rainfall.. but the worst over remaining over the ocean.

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The National Hurricane Center has shifted their cone to match the European Model.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida
from Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

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