Current Conditions: Baltimore, Maryland, 10/20/2021 12:10:03 pm
Temperature

75°

Mostly Sunny

48°

Dew Point
Relative Humidity

39%

Feels Like

75°

Wind (W)

10mph

Air Pressure

30.14

Sun
Sun Rise

07:21 AM

Sun Set

06:20 PM

Day Length

10:59 Hours

Difference

2 min 25 sec loss

Moon
Moon Rise

06:38 PM

Moon Set

07:12 AM

Next: Last Quarter

Oct 28,2021

Moon Phase

Full Moon

Climate
Average Low

44°

66°

Average High
Record Low

28°


(1992)

87°


(1969)
Record High
Current Conditions

July 11 Severe Storm Risk Timeline and Tropical Cyclone Update

Severe Weather
Forecast
Tropics

Thursday July 11 2019

There is a lot in the weather department today to discuss. While ‘Potential’  Cyclone Two (its official name so far) is not a tropical storm yet, it should get named Barry today. The latest projections are for rapid development but a shift closer to New Orleans for landfall track. More on that below. Locally we have a strong cold front that puts much of our region under the risk for severe storms… Completely separate from the tropical system.

Severe Storm Risk

The best chance for storms to turn severe are between the mountains and the Chesapeake Bay between 2 PM and 8 PM.

For a storm to be considered severe, it must have either winds over 58 mph, large hail over 1 inch diameter, rotation with potential to drop a tornado, flash flooding, and possibly frequent lightning.  See the timeline below with specific areas highlighted

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Flash Flood Watch

 

 

Local Weather Stats: Thursday July 11, 2019 in Baltimore

Average High:  88ºF

Record High: 100ºF in 1988

Average  Low: 67ºF

Record Low:  53ºF in 1996

Sunrise: 5:49 AM

Sunset 8:34 PM  

*Daylight = 1:05 shorter than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 79ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House 

 

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Highs Thursday

 

Radar Simulation Timeline—> slider

Best guess timing

  • 2 PM to 4PM: McHenry to Hagerstown
  • 4 PM to 6 PM: Frederick, York, and Baltimore
  • 6 PM to 8 PM: Bel Air, Elkton, Annapolis
  • Evening: Eastern Shore

 

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Highs Friday

Look at the cool air in McHenry, only 69ºF. But 80s will hold in metro areas.

 

Tropical Cyclone Two- Soon To Be Barry

This storm has shown a lot of enhanced storm activity this morning on satellite. But the organization has been slow. This delay is what has changed the expectations.

Forecast Models

Intensity: Rapid development is still expected once this gets going. Gulf of Mexico waters are very warm! But there will be less time for it to grow, so at best this looks like it might reach Category 1 hurricane intensity before landfall on Saturday morning.

 

 

 

Landfall: Because it is forming slower (to this point), that will impact the track… So landfall is now expected to be farther east, just south of New Orleans on Saturday morning.

 

HWRF Forecast Model Animation 

 

Potential Track Over New Orleans

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Will This Reach Us?

Some of the model tracks above did indicate a shift in our direction early next week. By that point it would not be tropical in nature.

Landfalling tropical systems are tough to plot out. Considering that this forecast development and landfall has already changed a lot in one day, I would not put to much stock in where it goes after landfall yet. We need this to form and do its thing, to have a better handle on the timing and then tracking.

 

Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/video, or just keep in touch via social media

 

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