Thursday Evening Storms Will Be Strong Or Briefly Severe

4 PM Thursday June 13 2019

Thunderstorms in June is pretty common. But when temperatures are in the mid 60s and 70s, it may seem too cool. But the brief sunshine working on that cool air is destabilizing the air. It is allowing for rapid lifting along with an approaching cold front. In short, there is a building line of storms set up to move through into the evening.

Notice that behind the storms, it is 68ºF in Cumberland and 55ºF in McHenry.

Ahead of the front, it is 66ºF in York, 70ºF in Westminster, and only lower 70s in central Maryland.

Doppler Radar

At 4 PM , Doppler radar showed this line near Hagerstown and south along the mountains.  I’ve highlighted the northern part of this line to compare to the model simulation below. This update or nowcasting suggest that the portion of the line to move through central Maryland and Southern Pennsylvania may be stronger than the short range HRRR model suggests.

There are other showers and storms well east of the main line. So we there will be multiple cells to track.

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Note:

Strong thunderstorms: May contain dangerous lighting, gusty winds, brief heavy downpour, and small hail (pea sized)

Severe thunderstorms: To be issued a warning, the winds need to exceed 58 mph, hail over 1 inch in diameter (size of a quarter).

Radar Simulation

Timeline —> slider

Please use this only as a rough gage. Comparing this first image at 4 PM to the Doppler Radar snapshot above, we can see the HRRR model may be underestimating the intensity.

The timing should be within an hour of the time stamp given. *Not exact*

The guidance suggests around 6 PM for the most likely time around metro Baltimore.

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I will be at this guest bartending event in Eldersburg, but will try to update if I can get a moment. Shannon and I look forward to anyone coming out to support the multiple causes Carrol County Assoc. of Realtors benefit.

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