Tuesday, January 20 Morning Report
The immediate weather story is all about cold winds! Temps stay below freezing, and wind chills will widely stay in the single digits and teens.
Large High Pressure will bring us a few sunny and mild days to follow, then we turn our attention to a large winter storm this weekend.
I have high confidence in this event impacting us, BUT I am also hesitant to jump on snow totals. It would be easy to do that and rank up the attention with the hype. I believe the timing is becoming more focused on Sunday into Monday, which is what teachers and kids may like for affects on schools. The specific track and totals will still fluctuate on modeling as various parts need to be coordinated to determine how far the Arctic air will lock in. That will lock in the north edge of snow and banding heavy snow, plus the ice storm that will inevitably be a major story for parts of the Southern US and may get close to some in our region as well.
Cold air will remain, while the activity could result in more storms over the next 2 to 3 weeks.
For Baltimore and the Mid-Atlantic: Cold winds are the story today! Arctic air has settled in with temperatures staying below freezing and wind chills in the single digits and teens. Highs will only reach the upper 20s.
The Deep Freeze has reached down into Florida.
Below Zero across the Northern US and Canada is still a major source of breeding for our next push of arctic air later this week.
Just enough wind to make the cold air feel colder!
Gusts to 25 mph, just enough to make our cold temperatures feel even colder.
WESTERN MARYLAND
This webcam is positioned at The Greene Turtle Deep Creek Lake and shows Wisp Resort, including a zoomed-in view of Squirrel Cage, The Face, the terrain park, Boulder, the mountain coaster, the tubing park and a shot of McHenry Cove at Deep Creek Lake!
Yesterday: Low 17°F; High 41°F
Precipitation: 0.00″
Season Snow Total: 2.4″
Snow Depth: 0″
Top Wind Gust: 26 mph
Sunrise at 7:22 AM
Sunset at 5:14 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 25ºF
Record Low: -3ºF in 1985
Normal High in Baltimore: 43ºF
Record High: 71ºF in 1951
Rainfall Deficit at BWI
The new arctic air mass will be undeniable as the temperatures remain in the freeze all day. Wind chills will be very noticeable.
Jet Stream 500mb (18,000 Ft) Forecast with Sea Level Pressure as forecast by the ECWMF AI Forecast System:
The highlight here is the expected Phasing of the two breaches of the jet stream.
Arctic Air in Canada will be dropping southward, enhancing the baroclinic air zone.
Moisture from Low Pressure off Southern California will be ejected into the Central US and phase to develop a large region with snow and freezing rain.
This is a measure of cycling or spin that enhances unstable air below. This is what helps the formation of clouds and precipitation.
SUGGESTION: ECMWF Model
Phasing or merging of the energy is what will develop this broad area of snow and freezing rain. The location of the arctic air and high pressure is still the main driver of where this will set up to track.
This is the expected development and track as seen by the European ECMWF Model. This has led the charge. The timing has been pushed a little later to arrive AND track has shifted a little farther north.
This is important: This model performs best in arctic patterns. Here, it has the timing about 12 hours earlier AND shows a very distinct father north push of the icy mix. THIS is why I am holding off on snow totals for now.
This model has the storm Stronger but sooner! Also, Farther North! That brings icy mix into Maryland and could cut down on potential totals.
There may be a clipper-like system to bring additional snow (chance) later next week.
After a brief warm-up Thursday (near 50°F!), arctic air crashes back in. Saturday is frigid with highs only 18°F, then the Snow Storm arrives on Sunday with 70% chance! Those cold temperatures mean whatever falls will stick.
Faith In The Flakes!
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In case you missed it, click this image for brief summary of the final snow totals from the last event.
In case you missed it, click this image for brief summary of the final snow totals from the last event.
Click here for the full report
This was issued October 9, as expected: A weak and short-lived event to start winter may play a different role this winter.
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I can also make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
