Saturday Evening Update January 17 2026
One thing I carry after all of my years of forecasting: If one model does a really good job in an active pattern, then stick with it. The short range high resolution HRRR Model did just that with our burst of snow this morning, even calling for the 2 to 4 inch totals. However, there was a band in Central Maryland that over achieved its expectations.
The next weather event will come on Sunday in TWO PARTS!
This is important to keep in mind because the first will seem to repeat what we just had. The second will respond the the Southern Storm passing off the coast. I do not see a westward trend of this Low Pressure, but rather the weakness in the atmosphere will allow the moisture to fill back a little farther west/inland.
Generally potential for 1 to 3 inches of snow with stickage on the roads,
This may blur the lines between the parts of the snow. A morning phase will be followed by a mid day lull, the resurgence moisture in the afternoon along the coast.
Watch the snow on the HRRR Model expand before sunrise. This will affect Southern Pennsylvania and mountain areas first, and the early hours will coincide with colder temps and allow for more snow and some accumulation.
This is important for the new snow falling.
Heavy slushy snow may be falling between Philadelphia and New York.
This is when the freeze will affect everyone. What is wet and not treated will turn icy.
This is most aggressive near Metro Philadelphia to New York.
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In case you missed it, click this image for brief summary of the final snow totals from the last event.
In case you missed it, click this image for brief summary of the final snow totals from the last event.
Click here for the full report
This was issued October 9, as expected: A weak and short-lived event to start winter may play a different role this winter.
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I can also make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
