My Call For Snowfall Saturday Morning Inland And Sunday Closer To The Coast

Friday Evening Update January 16 2026

Two weather events will bring snow to our region this weekend. They are related to the fast winds aloft on the edge of this arctic air mass.  These will not affect our region equally, and I hope this can simplify the breakdown.

System One On Saturday: In response to a jet streak, fast level winds high in the atmosphere, a band of snow will develop after midnight through the morning. This will affect inland areas along the front ridge of the mountain and inland hilly suburbs with some accumulating snow.

Timing is key for areas that may barely hold in the cold below freezing.

As this system moves into Central Maryland and metro areas around Washington and Baltimore, the marginal temperatures will eventually lead to slushy mix and then rain.

The dilemma is how cold the ground temps remain after this recent chill. Temps will be warming during the day and reach the 40s Saturday afternoon.

A more organized Low Pressure will form farther south on Sunday. This is what is expected to bring snow to Northern Florida and South Georgia. The back edge of this will clip the Mid Atlantic and most likely to include Delmarva and the beaches. The computer guidance has some hint to carry light snow to the Western EDGE of the Chesapeake Bay. But my focus is on where some stickage may affect roads for now.

Here is a quick look that includes My Call For Snowfall Saturday. Then the model guidance for Sunday’s event.

SET UP: Evening Surface Weather

For Baltimore and the Mid-Atlantic: A developing system is heading our way! Rain and snow are organizing to our west and will move toward the region overnight into Saturday morning.

• Developing System: A band of precipitation is developing from the Tennessee Valley through the Ohio Valley and heading toward the Mid-Atlantic. This will bring our wintry mix chance for Saturday morning.
• Snow to the North: Heavy snow continues across the Great Lakes region from Michigan through southern Canada and into upstate New York.
• Arctic Air: Another surge of arctic air continues to dive south from the Dakotas, reinforcing the cold pattern.
• Cold Air Moving East: The cold front is pushing eastward through Texas and the Gulf states, keeping the deep freeze in place across the South.

Saturday Morning Sunrise Upper Air Enhancement

Jet Streak at 300mb

Winds will exceed 150 knots by daybreak. That helps instability and the developing precipitation.

Vorticity at 850mb

This is the spin around 5,000 Ft is where we will watch the clouds produce the snow and mix for us.

My Call for Snowfall

Compare to the Model Forecast Plots Below

Slushy and mostly wet roads near Baltimore. Inland Suburbs from a coating to 1” from Eldersburg to Frederick. A better chance to get over 1 inch near Westminster, Hereford, up north near the PA line. A better chance for 2 inches will be near and north of the Pennsylvania Line.

There will be parts of the Poconos that could get higher amounts and my region on this map may be wider depending on the speed and intensity of that initial push of wet snow.

Radar Simulation 2 AM to 2 PM

Watch the snow on the HRRR Model expand before sunrise. This will affect Southern Pennsylvania and mountain areas first, and the early hours will coincide with colder temps and allow for more snow and some accumulation.

7 AM Snapshot

Snow may be affecting roads near Frederick, Westminster, and Southern Pennsylvania when you wake up.

7 AM Temperatures

Notice the freezing line holding within 10 to 15 miles of the Maryland/Pennsylvania line.

10 AM Snapshot

Slushy wet snow will continue in the colder areas. As the line of precipitation spreads east toward Washington and Baltimore it will mix with and change to rain.

There will be areas in the suburbs that get snow falling and only sticking on the grass, then eventually just melting.

12 PM Snapshot

A mix of wet slushy snow and rain will cross I-95 around this time. Heavy slushy snow may be falling between northeastern Maryland to Philadelphia and New York.

2 PM Snapshot

Heavy slushy snow may be falling between Philadelphia and New York.

Afternoon Temperatures

We will be warming up with and after this arrives. So any snow that falls will melt quickly.

COMPUTER MODEL SNOW POTENTIAL

HRRR Model

This is the MOST AGGRESSIVE totals!

ECMWF Model

National Blend of Models

SUNDAY SNOW

ECWMF Model 12 AM Sun to 12 AM Mon

Watch the system develop with snow across North Florida, then Low Pressure off the Southeast US Coast.

Sunday Temperatures at Noon

This shows the near freezing temps under the moderate snow near Tallahassee FL to Savannah GA.

Our region should be in the Mid 30s, which is important IF there is snow falling then!

Snapshots

Sunday Afternoon

Sunday Evening Close Up

Snowfall POTENTIAL

ECMWF Model – Just Sunday

ECMWF Model- Weekend Total

I will be up early Saturday to track what may be falling with you on social media.

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Snow Report December 14  and Grade My Forecast

In case you missed it, click this image for brief summary of the final snow totals from the last event.

Snow Report December 5 to 6 and Grade My Forecast

In case you missed it, click this image for brief summary of the final snow totals from the last event.

My Winter Outlook For Above-Average Snow

Click here for the full report

La Niña Advisory

This was issued October 9, as expected: A weak and short-lived event to start winter may play a different role this winter.

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Woolly Bear Caterpillar Winter Folklore

These are NOT all the same caterpillar!

Winter Outlook From 2 Farmers’ Almanacs

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I can also make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF

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