Friday, December 26, 2025
We have a Winter Weather Advisory for part of the region today and tonight. The weather system today is not easy to explain, as Central Maryland will be on the very southern edge of the impact. After reaching the upper 50s on Christmas Day, we have dropped back to freezing this morning, all the way to Southern Maryland.
The main change is small, but it will make a big deal. A slight shift north of the earlier track of the storm center will result in the arrival of the ‘bulk’ of the icy mix a little later, and it will be a little lighter. This will allow temperatures to recover just a little more around the metro Baltimore area.
The top items I want to highlight are that this will track just a little farther north. The result for us: Spotty showers may pop midday, but the main event will develop a little later and be a little lighter.
Half of my coverage area will see this as a non-event with light rain. Meanwhile, the other half will experience sleet and freezing rain.
The middle ground is Central Maryland, where the mix will turn to rain. With the bulk of activity arriving a little later, this will allow temps to modify just enough in many metro areas.
The impact of icing will be limited to elevated surfaces. I believe most roads will be OK. That will be different closer to the Pennsylvania line and farther north.
If you are driving North to Pennsylvania, New Jersey, or New York, there will be more ice and some heavy snow.
If you are driving West to the mountains, there will be more ice starting earlier in the day.
While midday may bring some spotty showers, this is mainly a mid-afternoon to evening event. It will be done by midnight!
Saturday looks OK, then the next storm will bring us rain and warmer air Sunday to Monday, followed by an arctic blast lasting through the New Year’s holiday.
The southern edge of impact will be NEAR I-70 in Maryland as a rough gauge, but marginal impact with warmer air moving in.
More concern farther West AND North of Baltimore.
The complication with a layer of warm air into the clouds while cold air hugs near the ground.
The DEPTH of cold air will determine if rain can freeze to ice pellets (sleet) or remain rain and then freeze on contact with the ground (freezing rain). Both are icy! Sleet is tiny balls of ice, freezing rain is just a layer of glaze that is smooth and more slippery.
As expected, temps have dropped below freezing in metro Baltimore.
Low Pressure near Chicago will be tracking along a narrow path between COLD air in New England and warmer air to the south. The transition will be right across our region.
Comparing Two Short-Range Model Simulations: The HRRR and NAM 3 Km models are both not perfect, but the contrast here may help show the similarities and subtle differences:
HRRR Model
NAM 3 Km Model
Temperatures
HRRR Model
NAM 3 Km
HRRR Model
NAM 3 Km
Notice the freezing line is expected to be just north of Baltimore
HRRR Model
NAM 3 Km
10 PM HRRR Model
Midnight NAM 3 Km Model
Total of 0.10” to 0.25” Near and North of the Maryland/Pennsylvania line.
Metro areas will be closer to 0.10”, so a small impact.
Metro New York is in line with a general 4 to 8 inches of snow. However, the Catskill Mountains and Lower Hudson Valley may get spots pushing even higher. This is the bullseye for this storm.
WESTERN MARYLAND
Wind is still in full force in this region. A fresh coasting to few inches of snow have blanketed the region.
This webcam is positioned at The Greene Turtle Deep Creek Lake and shows Wisp Resort, including a zoomed-in view of Squirrel Cage, The Face, the terrain park, Boulder, the mountain coaster, the tubing park and a shot of McHenry Cove at Deep Creek Lake!
Yesterday: Low 31°F; High 57°F
Precipitation: Trace
Season Snow Total: 2.0″
Snow Depth: 0″
Top Wind Gust: 26 mph
Sunrise at 7:25 AM
Sunset at 4:50 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 28ºF
Record Low: 2ºF in 1983
Normal High in Baltimore: 45ºF
Record High: 73ºF in 1889/1964
Rainfall Deficit at BWI
* Ending 2024 = -8.00″
* Since Jan 1 = -8.39″
* We are STILL DOWN -16.39″ INCLUDING LAST YEAR
This will be mostly cloudy and seasonal.
This will be the next pattern changer and will arrive a little later. A surge of warmer air with rain will arrive from Sunday to Monday. The rain may include a rumble of thunder…. on Monday.
Then temps will crash, and in the colder air, flurries will be possible on Tuesday. Another push of arctic air will arrive around the New Year.
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In case you missed it, click this image for brief summary of the final snow totals from the last event.
In case you missed it, click this image for brief summary of the final snow totals from the last event.
Click here for the full report
This was issued October 9, as expected: A weak and short-lived event to start winter may play a different role this winter.
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I can also make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
