Friday is going to be fierce! A strong cold front will bring heavy rain through the morning and may include pockets of lightning and thunder. A few squall lines are possible into the afternoon as winter makes a fast return. It may feel like all four seasons in the same day.
The high temperature in the morning may approach 60°F in spots, then fall all day with wind chills dropping to the teens.
The Wind Advisory includes Metro Baltimore, Washington, and Annapolis. Yes, the Bay Bridge is likely to have wind restrictions as gusts could reach 55 mph.
A High Wind Warning in the mountains for winds to 60 mph plus up to 1 inch of snow.
This WIND MACHINE is from the powerful storm that has already produced over 100 mph winds in parts of the Northern Plains. Yes, that happened in South Dakota.
Rain is spreading northward across the East Coast, and warm air will follow into the morning. Heavy rain will arrive in the Mid-Atlantic before sunrise.
The cold front has active thunderstorms across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. In the cold sector, snow has returned to Minnesota. This will reach the mountains of Western Maryland before noon on Friday.
This is using the RRFS Experimental Model. This is slated to be an upgraded replacement to the HRRR Model soon. I just want to see how this behaves with this event.
It does match the other short-range high-resolution models. The main cluster of heavy rain passes through Southern Maryland to Delmarva before sunrise.
Two more squall lines may cross Central Maryland. The cold front appears to be slotted for 7 AM to 9 AM across metro Baltimore.
Then another line will usher in the really cold air. This may include a few hours with flurries or snow showers that survive over the mountains.
The heavy rain in Southern Maryland to Delmarva with a second line in the mountains associated with the cold front.
This is a 5-hour summary between 2 AM and 7 AM
The cold front squall line will be passing Central Maryland at the end of the commute.
The high temp for the day may approach 60°F and will be in the morning.
The wind shift with the cold front will be prominent at this time.
Snow showers and flurries may cross the mountains and reach parts of Central Maryland to Southern Pennsylvania.
If you have plans, just know it will be much colder than the start of the day.
I believe most of us can expect 0.50 to 1.00 inch. Just for fun, here is a comparison of 4 models:
This one is often way too high.
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In case you missed it, click this image for brief summary of the final snow totals from the last event.
In case you missed it, click this image for brief summary of the final snow totals from the last event.
Click here for the full report
This was issued October 9, as expected: A weak and short-lived event to start winter may play a different role this winter.
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I can also make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
