Saturday Evening Update December 13
This is right up to the blocks as the starters pistol is about to go off. Yes, I ran track in high school and college. But at this point we discusses the jet streak, frontogenesis, and shredding the needle the the plots and timing.
While the onset is faster and may start with some rain or sleet, it will certainly turn to snow and THUMP for a few hours overnight. Snowfall rates may exceed 1 inch per hour and band of some areas. Then move away in the morning.
There is a case to be made that there could be ThunderSnow overnight. The HRRR model is on it. See below.
In this post I just wanted to put up my final call for snow fall. I have stayed with my original map and noted the areas I expected to get a boost higher. The latest computer guidance and observations lead me to believe it is best to expand my expectations for higher snow.
Reminder: If BWI gets 1.5″ of snow, then we will be at the average make for December snowfall for the first time in 5 years. Anything above that is bonus.
Also, the added emphasize on the bitter cold that will follow. Yes, whatever falls will stay through Monday. If you have plans to head out to watch football or Hanukkah celebrations Sunday evening, take notice.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Storm Warning: Metro Philadelphia
HOWEVER, There is also the issued of starting above freezing AND when the freezing line will make it to your area. So I had to hedge my bets a little.
I understand there is a lot to sort through on this page, so I will lead with the final Winter Weather Alert map and my snow forecast. Below you can see the Live Radar AND radar simulation to the expected timeline. Then compare to multiple model snow total maps AND National Weather Service forecast.
The only change form my original call and zoomed in update yesterday is expanding the 2 to 4 inch AND adding the 4 to 6 inch range for Northeastern Maryland and metro Philadelphia.
Bust potential here may be if this continues to overachieve more.
Snowfall rates of 1”/Hr overnight can do that, in addition to some lucky spots stuck in banding.
LOOK AT THE RANGE- NOT JUST THE HIGHER NUMBER
This is a rough gauge as some areas did get an early development over Delmarva.
The bulk of steady snow is behind the cold front in the Ohio Valley.
We re expected a pulse of faster winds at jet stream level to pass over our region after midnight. That is the energy that will develop our local snow burst.
Winds at 18,000 Ft may reach 130 mph, resulting in rapid riding air and heavy snow for a few hour.
This is NOT in winter mode. This simply shows the precipitation in one cold scheme.
HRRR MODEL LIGHTNING
5 AM Sun Dec 14
8 PM Saturday to 12 PM Sunday
Repeating my forecast and compare to others below.
LOOK AT THE RANGE- NOT JUST THE HIGHER NUMBER
Short Range that updated this afternoon.
The most reasonable solution.
This model is notorious for pulsing heavier precipitation at the last moment. However in this case it has plenty of company.
Gusts to 30 mph.
Yes, it will be cold enough for the snow to stay around.
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In case you missed it. The brief summary of the final snow totals from the last event.
Click here for the full report
This was issued October 9, as expected: A weak and short-lived event to start winter may play a different role this winter.
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I can also make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
