Sunday November 30: Morning Outlook
This report dives in a little deeper than my full morning report. Please note that this is from the most recent full model run overnight. New data is generating as I write this, so I will digest that after I share this.
I have high confidence that it will snow and stick North of Baltimore, AND, A chilly rain and wet roads for Southern Maryland and most of Delmarva.
The wild card is metro Baltimore AND I-95, which is where most of our population live. This is often the dividing line between the warm impact of the lower elevations and wind off the water, while the inland hills will be colder. The question is: Will it be cold enough for snow to lay and stay to start the day Tuesday!
Yes, there has been a colder trend with the European Model and tis southern track of Low Pressure. The confidence in this has been reflected by The National Weather Service snow forecast to include some accumulation in Baltimore.
However, the blend of short range models still are lower with the snow expectation.
This report will explore the model expectations and totals.
This trended COLDER and INCREASED snow expectations into Central Maryland
BWI Odds Up To 60%
BWI Odds 30%
With winter events, the most attention is often given to snowfall and totals. This early season event has a few obstacles for the Mid Atlantic that I want to emphasize.
NOT ALL SNOW THAT FALLS WILL STICK
This shows the burst of snow then mix across the Mid Atlantic.
A Moderate Snow Event will dump higher total across the suburbs of New York and into Southern New England.
This has the snow and mix entering metro Baltimore and Southern PA at this time.
This is slower AND I DO NOT BUY THIS. I have seen this model consistently be too slow with recent events.
This is IMPORTANT!
Regardless of the arrival time, the surface air BELOW FREEZING seems to be consistently NORTH AND WEST of Baltimore. This follows climate averages and that Fall Line along I-95, which the inland hills hold the cold longer.
If snow falls with temps above freezing, it is likely to melt but may hold on the grass.
Snapshots for GFS Model, Canadian GEM Model, and ECMWF Model.
The European contuses to be farther south… Timing will be key to get early snow if this arrives before sunrise.
But during the day I see snow falling with temps too warm for stickage, even a change to rain.
I used the Kuchera Method that accounts for compacting and melting… but I still hold:
NOT ALL SNOW THAT FALLS WILL STICK!
This is similar to the ECMWF plot above.
This has a little snow into Northern Maryland but not into the city itself.
These totals are lower, locally but higher with the surge from the Poconos to metro New York.
This plot is the warmest with the least amount of snow.
I will make a closer more detailed map in my next report.
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This was issued October 9, as expected: A weak and short-lived event to start winter may play a different role this winter.
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