Monday Night Update
I wanted to take a break from the overload of anticipation of the Arctic Air arriving after Thanksgiving. Yes, I am excited about it and also way too much of it on my newsfeed from others.
In the short range, we have a fast moving weather system that will race halfway across the country in 24 hours to pass over Maryland from the Central US to the coast. This track is south for a clipper, but on the edge of chilly and and a good test for the computer models on both the track and totals.
This Short Wave in the jet stream will translate to a robust little surface Low Pressure that has a tight circulation and can drop a moderate amount of precipitation in a few hours.
The initial rain may mix with sleet and slow in the mountains around noon. This will expand east into metro during the afternoon, but the main event will be overnight.
It seems like this pattern continues with events producing during the dark hours and ending by morning.
The reason for this post is to show the animations of how this will develop AND track some of the forecast totals to compare with the results.
It is important note that we are in a drought that has been pulsing with intensity over the past two years.
As of today, Baltimore is 6.41” BELOW AVERAGE rainfall on the year. And -14.44” including all of 2024.
Let’s take a look
Low Pressure was located over Kansas. This is expected to reach the East Coast off Ocean City MD by daybreak on Wednesday.
That’s more than 1,200 miles in 36 hours.
This should begin in the mountains between Noon and 2 PM. Let’s pick this up early afternoon.
It will be chilly with 30s in the mountains and 40s across much of our area between Southern PA and across Central Maryland to Delmarva.
This suggest the start with sleet and snow in the mountains if Western Maryland and Western PA. A band of snow to the north of Pittsburgh is also possible.
Rain may reach close to Hagerstown.
This solution is a little milder with mostly rain, and the breaks up across the mountains to showers.
The upper level energy translates to compact surface Low that may track across Northern Virginia with defined mesoscale frontal boundaries. This may produce some lighting and thunder with heavy downpours tracking along the Low near Washington and Baltimore.
Steady, moderate to heavy rain with a band of light snow across north central Pennsylvania.
The Surface Low may pass sough of Washington DC.
The Surface Low will pass east of Ocean City, taking the rain with it. The storm will be over by daybreak for most of the region.
This has been leading all models with accuracy so I want to start with this as the baseline.
Baltimore: 0.42”
This has a distinct lower total for the mountain, but pulsed along Rt 50.
Baltimore: 0.31”
This high resolution rapid update is close to the Euro AI, but higher Central Maryland.
Baltimore: 0.54”
This blend does support 1” totals in the mountains and matched the Baltimore mark with the HRRR.
Baltimore: 0.54”
I posted this brief summary on social media with the focus on:
This Weekend starting cool and damp, then warming.
Thanksgiving warm with an arctic surge and stormy weather approaching from the west.
December 1 is the mark for the arctic air to settle in across the Eastern US.
There is plenty of time to sort out the specifics.
Faith in the Flakes
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