October 29 2025
Wednesday Evening Update
Plan for a bumpy day on Thursday! A strong storm is moving through The Tennessee and the Ohio River Valleys and heading to the East Coast. This is is part of the large scale pattern that is helping to push Hurricane Melissa up to the Atlantic. So while we are trading one storm for another.
The set up has prompted NOAA to increase the Severe Storm Risk to Marginal for our region. This also includes the potential for storm cells with low level spin to produce damaging winds or even isolated tornadoes.
Heavy rain will develop overnight and into the morning hours. There will be some upper level energy to enhance storm cells through the morning and into the early afternoon.
Reminder of Storm Alerts:
A Watch will be issued if there is potential for severe weather to develop.
A Warning will be issued when severe weather is occurring AND being tracked through specific towns.
HRRR Model
Focus around the central Chesapeake Bay and Delmarva
HRRR Model
Focus around the central Chesapeake Bay and Delmarva
The rapid circulation around our inland storm is leading to a mature occluded phase. This is when the cold air wraps completely around the Primary Low Pressure. At this point, often a shift of energy can occur where there is a triple point of the occluded front and a new surface Low Pressure that will spin with the connected cold and warm front.
We see that East of Atlanta this morning and it will ride north through I-81 into Virginia, Maryland, and Pennsylvania tomorrow.
The estimated time at 2 PM may be best to consider a window between 10 AM and 2 PM.
This is the suggested location of the Triple Point Low between Frederick and Hagerstown Maryland.
The low level circulation is what will enhance the severe weather risk!
The air flow here at 700mb, which is around 10,000 Ft above the ground.
The air flow at this level peaks at 82 mph. This can be translated down to the surface with some storm cells.
The model predicts a regional average of 40 to 50 mph.
However, some individual cells could push OVER 60 mph and qualify severe storm criteria.
We are in desperate need for rainfall and this will help.
I have been saying all week that we can expect 1 to 2 inches.
These 4 models do show there is potential for higher pockets.
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