Sunday, October 26, 2025
The coldest air of the season remains in place, and the pattern is going to hold, then bring on more cold! I have our local forecast, but the main weather story today is about the rapid growth of Hurricane Melissa and devastation expected for Jamaica. That is a sad reality and not just for headlines.
Locally, we expect a larger storm complex to bring us rain later in the work week. That will keep Melissa well off the East Coast AND THEN reinforce the cold air into November,
Tropical Storm Melissa is now Hurricane Melissa, as it reached hurricane strength at 2 PM yesterday, rapidly intensifying to 90 mph winds by evening. It reached Major Hurricane Category 3 at 11 PM, and this morning the winds have continued to increase to 140 mph.
The environment is supporting this storm’s development, with wind speeds reaching up to 160 mph today, making it the 3rd Category 5 storm of the season. It is moving very slowly and is still on target to turn and make landfall on Jamaica on Tuesday morning as a high category 4 or still a 5 and pass just west of Kingston. The high mountains will enhance rainfall with a potential of 40 inches on the east side of the island.
LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH
MIDWEEK
The National Hurricane Center is picking up the ECMWF Model forecast…
20 to 40 inches expected for the eastern half of Jamaica.
The light steering winds will allow a crawl over very warm water. This has allowed rapid development to major hurricane intensity.
There is ample warm water that runs deep, so upwelling is not expected to be a factor for cooling. Essentially, there is plenty of energy for this to feed off.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
These all show the kick to the Atlantic and close to Bermuda… but NOT a US mainland storm. Our local storm and push of colder air will protect us.
Note: The stronger side of the storm is on the ‘right side’ of forward movement. The precise track may shift for landfall and crossing the island.
Yesterday: Low 36F; High 59F
Precipitation: 0.00” (up to midnight)
Sunrise at 7:28 AM
Sunset at 6:12 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 43ºF
Record 27ºF in 1952
Normal High in Baltimore: 65ºF
Record 83ºF 2023
Rainfall Deficit at BWI
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Drought Monitor Update
The need for rain has been highlighted and may be underrepresented in some spots.
We need rain.
The Operational European Model has taken the lead on this storm development. There will be two waves, with the first passing to our south with rain, but clouds may reach our sky by Tuesday.
The second wave will include two parts. A coastal low and a larger impulse injected from the Central Plains. They will merge into a larger East Coast Storm Complex.
The timing places us with the best chance for rain Wednesday night into Thursday. Even cold enough for snow on the high summits of West Virginia.
This is now expected to move out by Halloween with cold winds filling in…. Also helping to protect us from Hurricane Melissa.
Rainfall amounts are still uncertain, and why I do NOT like to plot this more than 5 days away. We can look for 1 to 2 inches of rain realistically. I will begin to share those maps tomorrow.
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This was issued October 9, as expected: A weak and short-lived event to start winter may play a different role this winter
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I can also make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
