Friday October 24 2025
The weather map is active and we have a lot expected over the next week.
The short version is that we are stuck in a colder pattern. Temps will remain below average and this may include expanded Frost Advisories tomorrow morning.
A busy storm pattern will set up and could bring us to hits of rain next week. The second one will be the bigger one. That will arrive Thursday and Halloween Friday with heavier rain and colder air.
That is also expected to take Melissa as a major hurricane out of the Caribbean and into the Central Atlantic, missing the US mainland.
The concern for Melissa on Jamaica is real! Later this weekend rapid development may push this to Category 4 or higher with a pounding of heavy rain on the island nation for many days. The rainfall total may be measured in a few feet.
Let’s take a look…
A lot of activity and dare I say a ‘winter look’?
The chilly air has expanded across the Eastern US.
Great Lakes instability will continue to provide clouds and locally heavy band of rain (this time).
A new storm is developing in the Southern Plains and will start the track of a few systems to the East Coast.
Gusts over 20 mph
The influence of daytime clouds will again form over the mountains and inland hills west and north.
Yesterday: Low 44F; High 66F
Precipitation: 0.00” (up to midnight)
Sunrise at 7:26 AM
Sunset at 6:15 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 43ºF
Record 25ºF in 1969
Normal High in Baltimore: 66ºF
Record 82ºF 2001
Rainfall Deficit at BWI
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The need for rain has been highlighted and may be underrepresented in some spots.
We need rain.
The Frost and Freeze Alerts are expected to be expanded to more areas.
This is the AI Version of the European Model. I highlight that because it does differ from the operational models, but has been performing best, so I will focus on this:
Here we see two systems. One tracking just south and then off the coast mid-week. The second will be with the upper-level cold-core Low. This may bring the rain on Thursday into Friday morning. It will kick Hurricane Melissa out of the Caribbean and into the Central Atlantic.
Tropical Storm Melissa’s winds have decreased to 45 mph.
The light steering winds will allow a stall and crawl over very warm water. This will encourage rapid development to major hurricane intensity.
There is ample warm water that runs deep, so upwelling is not expected to be a factor for cooling. Essentially, there is plenty of energy for this to feed off.
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
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This is expected to become a Category 4 Hurricane later this weekend as it stalls or crawls to the south side of Jamaica.
These all show the kick out into the Atlantic and close to Bermuda… but NOT a US mainland storm. Our local storm and push of colder air will protect us.
Heavy rain may be enhanced even more over the mountains on these islands. The final total could easily be double or triple this over Jamaica and the Turks and Caicos.
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This was issued October 9, as expected: A weak and short-lived event to start winter may play a different role this winter
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