Thursday Night Update October 9 2025
The next coastal storm is going to be another fascinating weather event to watch develop, and I am grateful this is not winter. If so, then calling snow totals would be nearly impossible.
What we are about to witness is the interaction of two short waves in the jet stream coming together to form a larger storm that may get stuck for a few days.
On the surface, the recent double hurricanes brought the Fujiwhara Effect into pop culture. That interaction of two low-pressure centers can be on display in various weather scales.
In this case, the jet stream focus will reflect in a coastal low-pressure system that is expected to nearly stall or loop around the Mid Atlantic.
THE TRUTH
The main storm is going to start with Low Pressure near New Orleans, riding along the old cold front.
Rain is falling on the Florida coast.
An onshore wind from the East is helped by High Pressure in New York.
We can add in the astronomical King Tides for enhanced beach erosion all the way up the coast already.
Here is a look at the Vorticity or spin aloft. This helps us see the ‘short wave’ I mentioned above.
The stronger one will be dropping south from Canada. The other will be associated with the Surface Low to the South.
We can see the two areas of focus set to approach the Mid-Atlantic. They will end up orbiting and then merging into a cut off system over the Mid-Atlantic.
The Upper Level Cut Off Low will be over the Mid-Atlantic, separated from the main jet stream. This is aloft and will capture the Surface Low and pull it back in the loop.
Here is the result of the 50 members of the ECMWF Model. All the scenarios are run to produce these results. We look for the consensus or region where the bulk are located to get a better handle on what to expect.
This is ONE SUGGESTION of how the Low Pressure will develop and loop back towards the coast.
This may help show with the surface circulation how the center Low Pressure gets pulled back and looped around the Mid-Atlantic.
This is NOT PERFECT, and why calling the specifics is very challenging. Where and when will it make the turn? How will it track? Where will the heavy rain set up? All those questions are still hard to pin down.
This is tropical storm strength by the coast.
Note: I would lean toward the middle of what we see here, which still places the potential for 1 to 2 inches in Central Maryland.
This will be a test for the AI version of the European Model. It has been aggressive with this system and is now trending to be the lowest with rainfall.
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I posted a report earlier about La Niña Watch. This is expected to be brief and trend back to neutral, which could result in an active and snowy winter.
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