October 9 2025
A La Niña has officially been declared by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.This was forecast and now identified as by the expanding area of below average (cooler) sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean along the equator.
It is weak and will be short lived. These are important when looking ahead to winter. That is also emphasized by the National Weather Service: This will not be a typical La Nina Winter.
The large region of blue is the cooler water along the equator in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
The large area in orange is the record warm water in the north Pacific Ocean.
July 16 to October 1
July 16 to October 1
71% Chance to continue November to January
55% Chance to trend to neutral January through March.
Short lived La Nina with water temperatures 0.5℃ to 1.0℃ below average.
This general storm track shows an active storm pattern originating in the Pacific Ocean and tracking across North America.
A ‘Typical’ La Niña woudl turn up the mountains and place the Mid Atlantic Coast on the warm and wet side of storms.
I believe the CHANGE with other elements may support a shift EAST to the coast. The result could be more active Coastal Storms/Nor’easters.
I will use statistics for Baltimore, MD, at BWI Airport as a reference for the Mid-Atlantic region.
This is the total precipitation for rain and snow.
Overall, there is an even split. But this chart can be confusing. A Moderate La Niña has 4 out of 6 times been below average, but the chart has the largest total. This is because when there is an above-average pattern, it can be WAY ABOVE AVERAGE to offset the total comparison.
If you have Faith in the Flakes, this might not be what you want to see. But there is a silver lining. While most years show below-normal snow, there have been some big exceptions.
Also
It is my humble opinion that the Winter Storm Track may hold some echoes of La Niña, but get pushed south. This will allow colder air to interact with the warm Gulf water and focus along the East Coast to provide multiple Nor’easters.
That is why I am leaning heavily on the notion that we will have ABOVE NORMAL WINTER SNOW!
Typical La Niña vs. My Expected Shift
The last time we had similar conditions was in the Fall of 2013, leading into the Winter of 2014.
That season resulted in 39 inches of snow in Baltimore, which is nearly double the average.
I will have much more information to share and contribute to my formal Winter Forecast next month.
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