October 9 Frost Advisory Friday Then We Watch The Coastal Storm By Sunday

Thursday, October 9 2025

Chilly air has settled in, and more is on the way. As the new air mass arrives, today will be breezy, and overnight, the core of cold air will push most inland areas west of the city and bay into the 30s. As a result, the first Frost Advisory has been issued for Central Maryland. A Freeze Warning is in place farther west through the mountain region.

Additional advisories are in place for the expected coastal storm. This may bring rain showers on Saturday, then the main event begins on Sunday. The impact will be rain with more wind and high waves on the Bay and Coast. While the precise track is still vague, the impact has prompted a Gale Watch and Flood Alerts along the shorelines.

Weather Alerts

Tropical Storm Jerry now has winds up to 65 mph. This will pass north of Puerto Rico and then turn East of Bermuda. This is NOT a US coastal event and is completely separate from the storm we are watching this weekend.

Let’s take a look….

Surface Weather

Large High Pressure is building in with a chilly breeze and more cold air.

The cold front will stall to the south and help be the focus for the next wave to develop Low Pressure along the South Carolina coast this weekend.

Morning Temperatures

Wind Forecast 8 AM to 8 PM

The wind will be stronger this morning and ease this afternoon.

High Temperatures

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

Yesterday: Low 51F; High 71F

Precipitation: 0.12”

TODAY October 9

Sunrise at 7:11 AM

Sunset at 6:36 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  49ºF

Record 28ºF in 2001

Normal High in Baltimore: 71ºF

Record 94ºF 2007

Rainfall Deficit at BWI

• Ending 2024 =  -8.00”
• Since Jan 1 =  4.90”
• We are STILL DOWN -12.90” INCLUDING LAST YEAR

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FRIDAY

Morning Temperatures

The chilly air will be in place. Cold enough for possible frost across the mountain region IF the winds can settle down enough.

Afternoon Temperatures

Weekend Coastal Storm

ECMWF Model Ensemble

This shows the 50 members’ location for Low Pressure. Multiple runs yield different solutions, and in this case, we look for the consensus where the majority agree. It is far from perfect, but it gives us a better idea and avoids just showing the worst-case scenario.

The storm will produce winds over 50 mph and heavy rain along the coast. How deep inland this will impact is subject to where the Low sets up and tracks.

Animation

Here is a look at the GEM Model, since the full ECWMF run did not come in. Here we see a similar solution with the highlight that Low Pressure will move up the coast and get captured by the cut-off in the jet stream. This ‘could’ pull it back and loop through the Mid-Atlantic.

These situations tend to be very fickle, which is why there is a vagueness in how it will track.

Snapshots

One of MULTIPLE POSSIBLE Solutions

Sunday Afternoon

Monday Morning

Monday Night

Tuesday

Wave Forecast

Likely Wave Heights And Direction

Ocean City can expect 8 to 14 Ft waves FROM the East. This will lead to beach erosion.

Maximum Wave Heights

Shoreline waves may be 18+ Feet.

Offshore, we still expect waves to push to 50 Feet.

TROPICAL WEATHER

National Hurricane Center Outlook

Tropical Storm Jerry has winds of 65 mph.

Forecast Track

The track keeps it NORTH of Puerto Rico and turns East of Bermuda. So, no threat to the East Coast.

7 Day Forecast

• Cold Friday Morning; Sunny Afternoon.
• Saturday: Clouds and showers move in
• Sunday to Tuesday: The time window for the coastal storm. Specific impacts will be subject to change.

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4 SUPERMOONS In A ROW

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Wooly Bear Caterpillar Winter Folklore

These are NOT all the same caterpillar!

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I posted a report earlier about The La Niña Watch. This is expected to be brief and trend back to neutral, which could result in an active and snowy winter.

Take A Look…

Winter Outlook From 2 Farmers Almanacs

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

THANK YOU:

Baltimore Sun Magazine Readers’ Choice Best Of Baltimore

Maryland Trek 12 Day 7 Completed Sat August 9

UPDATED: We raised OVER $166,000 for Just In Power Kids – AND Still Collecting More

The annual event: Hiking and biking 329 miles in 7 days between The Summit of Wisp to Ocean City.

Each day, we honor a kid and their family’s cancer journey.

Fundraising is for Just In Power Kids: Funding Free Holistic Programs. I never have and never will take a penny. It is all for our nonprofit to operate.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I can also make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF

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