Thursday Afternoon, September 25 2025
We are about to get wet and make up for the second wave drought that has been growing. A cold front will help develop a line of strong thunderstorms this afternoon, with a marginal risk that they turn severe. The prime risk may be gusty winds up to 60 mph.
This system is tracked below with my model pick for radar simulation and live radar widget.
That front will stall to our south and return with steady rain later Saturday into Sunday.
What follows depends on a new tropical storm developing off the southwest US coast. This will be affected by Tropical Storm Humberto, which is farther off the coast and expected to become a major hurricane.
In short, there is a traffic jam developing off the Atlantic seaboard that will keep the risk of rain around for most of the next 7 days, with totals well over 2 inches in many areas.
This is from the European ECMWF Model.
IF we do get under the influence of a new Tropical Storm Imelda, then the rain impact will continue beyond this time window and add up even more.
The cold front is slowly moving into the Mid-Atlantic states.
Tropical Storm Humberto has 50 mph winds and is forecast to track WEST of Bermuda while reaching Major Hurricane Category 3 intensity.
Invest 94L has a 90% chance to develop and get named Imelda by the end of the weekend. This is the concern for heavy rain, wind, and beach erosion. It has not formed yet, which is why the forecast is uncertain.
This is a Level 1 chance for any storm cell to produce winds over 58 mph, large hail, and an isolated tornado.
This is the RRFS Experimental Model. I chose this over other products since recent events have been underrepresented by the HRRR and NAM 3Km.
This is a guide and not a promise.
Friday should end up dry.
Saturday may start dry, then turn rainy in the afternoon and evening.
Sunday looks soggy!
Monday and Tuesday really depend on the influence of that new tropical cyclone forming.
This product was first to be aggressive and push that new storm (Imelda) inland.
Fujiwhara Effect
This AI version is stalling the Low off the coast, allowing Humberto to pass by, then moving out to sea.
This may not include the entire rainy event.
This is based on the European Model showing the highest waves off the East Coast at this time.
Take Away: There is no promise of the track, but there will be up to 5 days of high water pounding the coast with more beach erosion.
I posted a report earlier about The La Niña Watch. This is expected to be brief and trend back to neutral and may result in an active and snowy winter.
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