La Niña Watch High For Autumn Then Fading Could Mean Higher Snow This Winter 2026

September 15, 2025

There has been a recent update from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center for the likelihood of La Niña developing in the Pacific Ocean. This is a region of cooler-than-average water temperatures that can affect the storm track across North America.

This La Niña Watch has more under the hood. It is expected to be brief and weak with a peak this fall, then trending back to neutral during the winter. There is a deeper meaning for the potential impact of snow in the Eastern United States this winter.

In short, there is a higher chance for La Niña this fall then the odds are nearly equal through the winter.

• 71% Chance for La Niña: October through December
• 54% Chance for La Niña: December through February

NOTE: The trend is a short La Niña with temperatures 0.5C to 1.0C below average this Fall, then back to neutral during Winter.

Recent Conditions

Pacific Tropical Sea Surface Temperatures

The cooler region off the west coast of South America has been expanding westward along the equator. This is typical of a building La Niña.

Note: The warm water in the North Central Pacific AND the Gulf both may contribute to shifting the winter storm track if a La Niña forms and then quickly weakens.

La Niña Basics

• This is part of the larger cycle of ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation)
• It is a measure of water (sea surface) temperature around the equator in the Central Pacific Ocean
• El Niño is when this region has warmer Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) than average
• La Niña is a condition when this region has cooler SST than average.

The result of both can shift the origin of storm formation and IMPACT/SHIFT the jet stream storm track across North America.

In this report, we will look at the breakdown of the NOAA forecast because if you want more snow, a La Niña itself historically is NOT what you may want to encourage in the Mid-Atlantic region of the US. But a weak La Niña or one that is fading during winter can actually work to increase the odds for snow. This is because an ‘imprint’ may be left in the atmosphere to favor East Coast storms, but easily directed by other forces such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and Polar Vortex Disruption.

• 71% Chance for La Niña: October through December
• 54% Chance for La Niña: December through February

NOTE: The trend is a short-lived La Niña with temperatures 0.5 to 1.0°C below average this Fall, then back to neutral during Winter.

Water Temperature Animations June 25 to Sep 10

Anomaly Sea Surface Temperature

Actual Sea Surface Temperature

Upper Ocean Heat Anomalies Since Last Year

Cycle Over The Past 25 Years

Cycle Of La Niña and El Niño since 1950

Video: La Niña and El Niño Explained By NOAA

How Does This Affect Our Weather?

I will use statistics for Baltimore, MD, at BWI Airport as a reference for the Mid-Atlantic region.

History Of La Niña In Baltimore

Temperatures

• Warmer than normal 65% of the La Niña winters.
• Cooler than normal, 35% of La Niña winters.
• Weak La Niña is even chances.
• Moderate La Niña is most likely to bring colder temperatures.

Precipitation

This is the total precipitation for rain and snow.

Overall, there is an even split. But this chart can be confusing. A Moderate La Niña has 4 out of 6 times been below average, but the chart has the largest total. This is because when there is an above-average pattern, it can be WAY ABOVE AVERAGE to offset the total comparison.

Snowfall

If you have Faith in the Flakes, this might not be what you want to see. But there is a silver lining. While most years show below-normal snow, there have been some big exceptions.

• 1996 – January Blizzard was in a La Niña year. This also accounted for most of the snow that winter.
• 2000 – Most of the snowfall that winter was in a 10-day period between January 20 and 30. This included the ‘surprise’ Nor’easter that brought 14.9″ of snow to BWI on January 25.

Worth Considering

• The Gulf Water AND Pacific Water Temperatures off the US Coast have been near record warm levels. These will both contribute to winter storm development and tracks.
• We also need to apply the pattern we have seen this past August into early September with a dominant cool flow into the Eastern US.

Also

• Mid-Atlantic coast has had a persistent East flow of wind and waves in recent months.
• Small spin-up low-pressure systems. These have been compact along the coast and could signal a pattern of more to develop in the volatile winter.

It is my humble opinion that the Winter Storm Track may hold some echoes of La Niña, but get pushed south. This will allow colder air to interact with the warm Gulf water and focus along the East Coast to provide multiple Nor’easters.

That is why I am leaning heavily on the notion that we will have ABOVE NORMAL WINTER SNOW!

Winter Storm Track

Typical La Niña vs. My Expected Shift

ANALOG WINTER: 2013 to 2014

The last time we had similar conditions was in the Fall of 2013, leading into the Winter of 2014.

That season resulted in 39 inches of snow in Baltimore, which is nearly double the average.

I will have much more information to share and contribute to my formal Winter Forecast next month.

Faith in the Flakes

WINTER SNOW ANALYSIS 2013 to 2014

Mid Atlantic

USA

Also See

Comparing Two Farmers Almanacs Winter Outlooks

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

Subscribe for eMail Alerts

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school  

THANK YOU

Maryland Trek 12 Day 7 Completed Sat August 9

UPDATED: We raised OVER $167,000 for Just In Power Kids – AND Still Collecting More

The annual event: Hiking and biking 329 miles in 7 days between The Summit of Wisp to Ocean City.

Each day, we honor a kid and their family’s cancer journey.

Fundraising is for Just In Power Kids: Funding Free Holistic Programs. I never have and never will take a penny. It is all for our nonprofit to operate.

Click here or the image to donate:

THANK YOU:

Baltimore Sun Magazine Readers’ Choice Best Of Baltimore

RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I can also make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF

Please share your thoughts and best weather pics/videos, or just keep in touch via social media.

• Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist

• Twitter

• Instagram