Saturday, August 16 2025
Morning Report
Our local weather is still warm and sticky with some late-day thundershowers expected. We will get to that below, but the tropics take the lead headline today.
Hurricane Erin has strengthened even more rapidly than expected overnight. As of this 6 AM morning, NOAA Hurricane Hunters found sustained winds at 130 mph, making this a Category 4 storm. Updated at 8 AM with winds to 145 mph!
This will become very large, and while it will miss a direct landfall, it will affect the entire East Coast with large waves.
EDIT 8 AM NHC UPDATE
Winds 145 mph: This is RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
Hurricane Force Winds reach 30 miles from the center; Tropical Storm Force Winds extend 125 miles from the center.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
Now at Major Hurricane Ranking, it is expected to remain as such while passing over very warm water. It will gradually weaken as it pushes farther north into colder water.
Still expected to pass NORTH of the Caribbean Islands, East of the Bahamas, AND West of Bermuda.
This expected track BETWEEN the US and Bermuda is holding up consistently.
High Pressure remains in control. There may be a hint of lower humidity later today, but not this morning…. It is a bit sticky.
The next impactful weather feature will be the Cold Front in the Northern Plains, which will arrive in the middle of the work week. That will bring us more thunderstorms, a cooler air mass, and help steer Erin off the coast.
Scattered thundershowers will form with the East wind. They will be scattered and move towards the West/Northwest.
Yesterday: Low 72F; High 91F
The last day of the year with sunset at 8 PM
Sunrise at 6:21 AM
Sunset at 8:00 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 66ºF
Record 53ºF in 2013
Normal High in Baltimore: 87ºF
Record 101ºF 1997
Rainfall Deficit at BWI
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A line of thunderstorms will drop southward from Pennsylvania in the evening.
The typical curve is expected to pass well between the US and Bermuda.
The rain bands will affect the Northeast Caribbean Islands and maybe the Outer Banks (OBX) of North Carolina. A cold front approaching from the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes will bring rain to the Mid Atlantic and keep Erin well offshore.
A cold front heading across the Ohio Valley is expected to help keep Erin off the coast. WE will have more thunderstorms, NOT part of the Hurricane!
Waves 8 to 12 Feet across the Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Over 50 Foot waves near the storm’s center, well off the coast.
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
