Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 9 PM June 19 Risk For Damaging Wind Large Hail Tornadoes And Flooding

Thursday June 19, Afternoon Update

As I suspected in my previous report, a severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for the region until 9 p.m. This is not surprising, given the high humidity and strong cold front on the way in.

A strong line of storms and even multiple storm cells through the evening may lead to destructive conditions. I just want to post the updates here, including the new HRRR Model simulation timeline and live radar.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

• Potential for Winds OVER 60 mph
• Hail OVER 1” diameter
• Tornadoes

Additional Alerts To Consider:

Multiple warnings have already been issued, and more are expected. A WARNING will be issued when A STORM FORMS AND IS BEING TRACKED! This will list towns in the path and usually covers a 45-minute window.

Doppler Radar Snapshot at 2:40 PM

See the RADAR SIMULATION FORECAST BELOW

Cells Moving 30+ mph to the Northeast… the line is moving to the East.

Live Radar and Lightning Widget

Flood Watch

This is confined to the region where water levels are high from yesterday’s rainfall. Like the previous storms, rainfall rates may exceed 1”/Hour, and totals up to 3 inches are possible.

Storm Prediction Message Discussion

• MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY…UP TO 95 MPH
• MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST…55-70 MPH
• MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE…UP TO 1.25 IN

NOAA Severe Storm Outlook: Today

Radar Simulation: 3 PM to 11 PM

Snapshots

4 PM

5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

8 PM

9 PM

Friday

Morning Low Temperatures

Afternoon High Temperatures

LOOKING AHEAD

Jet Stream: 500mb Geopotential Heights

Saturday through Wednesday

Tuesday Snapshot: Heat Dome

Forecast Afternoon Heat Index

Monday

Tuesday

7 Day Forecast

• Severe Storm Risk Today
• Weekend: Hot and Dry
• Next Week: Dangerous Heat

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Baltimore Sun Magazine Readers Choice Best Of Baltimore

Maryland Trek 11 Day 7 Completed Sat August 10

We raised OVER $111,000 for Just In Power Kids – AND Still Collecting More

The annual event: Hiking and biking 329 miles in 7 days between The Summit of Wisp to Ocean City.

Each day, we honor a kid and their family’s cancer journey.

Fundraising is for Just In Power Kids: Funding Free Holistic Programs. I never have and never will take a penny. It is all for our nonprofit to operate.

Click here or the image to donate:

RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF

Maryland Trek 12 August 3 to 9

This is an annual event: Hiking and biking 329 miles in 7 days between the Summit of Wisp to Ocean City.

Here are the kids we will honor each day as we cross Maryland.

Our full week team is set. We have our Day 4 all-bike ride open for registration.