April 5 2025
Saturday Morning Report
We remain under the influence of a nearly stalled frontal boundary. For us in the Mid-Atlantic, there will continue to be a contrast of 30+ degrees across 100 miles or so… Central Maryland remains on the edge and has a bit of potential for some movement with the thermometer.
Rain showers will lift north and then redevelop by this evening, along with pockets of thunderstorms. We can expect more action on our north side tonight and then for the rest of the region later on Sunday.
Yes, we are still in severe drought mode, with a 3-inch hole this year and an 11-inch hole, including last year!
The southern part of that front will once ignite a burst of severe storms in the lower Mississippi River Valley.
Sunrise at 6:44 AM
Sunset at 7:35 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 40ºF
Record 25ºF in 1881
Normal High in Baltimore: 63ºF
Record 84ºF 2010
Drought Reminder
Rainfall Deficit at BWI
The cooler air has settled back in from the North overnight. This will be tough to budge today across Maryland… The forecast maps below help tell that story.
The cooler air dropped southward from New England last night and is expected to stall near the Virginia and Maryland border.
Heavy rain and flooding will continue across the Deep South, where another widespread severe storm outbreak is expected.
The Level 3 ENHANCED RISK in the Lower Mississippi River Valley will pop another widespread outbreak of tornadoes EF-2 or stronger.
Comparing these two models, we can see the bust potential. I am sticking with the National Blend of Models. If you live in Central Maryland, that means remaining in the 60s. If your temps reach into the 80s, then the HRRR Model did a better job!
The rain this evening and tonight is similar from both products…. more likely west and north of Baltimore. You have a better chance to stay dry if you live south.
Temperatures may be mild in the morning and then fall during the day. This all depends on how the front behaves… and steady rain will develop with some thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.
Morning showers and then a wider impact of rain into the afternoon and at night.
The expectation is for the rain to arrive with the colder air mass… temps will fall all day.
The active front will bring steady rain and thunderstorms through the East Coast on Monday. This will be followed by a colder air mass and snow across the Great Lakes.
This is a winter-like pattern but modified for early April. It will be chilly, and mornings may drop below freezing in many areas mid-week.
The core of the cold air will be passing through New England.
The next Low Pressure that will ride the jet stream will reach us with rain by Friday.
The main rain will be Sunday night to Monday morning.
Colder week ahead, then mild with rain returning Friday.
Click here for the full report:
Click on the maps for that full report.
Brief Recap Of The Record Snow For Virginia and the abrupt change from the longer range potential track.
click here or the map for more
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
