March 4 Tracking A Severe Storm Risk Across The Deep South Today Reach Mid Atlantic Tomorrow

March 4, 2025

Tuesday Morning Report

The clash of seasons will be full-blown on the weather maps this week. It will explode with a possible tornado outbreak later today and tonight. That energy will push our way into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast on Wednesday. The back side of the same storm will produce a blizzard across the Rockies to the Northern Plains.

Severe Storm Cells can produce:

• Damaging Winds OVER 58 mph
• Large Hail OVER 1-inch diameter
• Isolated Tornadoes

Storm Alerts: Maybe issued for severe storms, tornadoes, and flooding.

• Watch: Potential For Development. The time frame is usually 4 to 6 hours and will include a cluster of counties.
• Warning: Identified storm cell. The time frame is usually 45 minutes and will include towns in the path.

We need rain, and some storm cells will produce close to 1 inch… still not enough for our 10-inch deficit since last year. However, a burst in a short period of time with solid soil can run off more easily and produce local flooding.

NOAA SEVERE STORM OUTBREAK

Slight Risk = Level 2 of 5. Widespread thunderstorms with a few cells that can turn severe. But NOT ALL.

Enhanced Risk = Level 3 of 5. This means a tornado outbreak is more likely.

Today

Tomorrow

Morning Surface Weather

Warmer air will flow in today for the Mid-Atlantic. The storm is organizing with a line of severe storms already this morning that will get charged with daytime heating as it moves east.

The cold side will expand snow and blizzard conditions from the Central Rockies to the Northern Plains.

Storm Forecast Tuesday to Thursday

Local  Forecast Maps Below

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY March 4

Sunrise at 6:34 AM

Sunset at 6:03 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  31ºF

Record 5ºF in 2014

Normal High in Baltimore: 51ºF

Record 78ºF 1923

Baltimore Seasonal Snow

12.7”

DROUGHT UPDATE

Rainfall Deficit at BWI

• Ending 2024 =  -8.00”
• Since Jan 1 =  -2.44”
• We are DOWN -10.44” including last year

Local Morning Temperatures

High Temperatures

WEDNESDAY WEATHER

Morning Temperatures

A seasonally cold start to the day.

Afternoon Temperatures

We may remain warm after the storm line passes…

Radar Simulation: NCEP WRF Model

Wednesday: 7 AM to 7 PM

Suggested Timeline Snapshots

12 PM

2 PM

4 PM

Peak Wind Gusts

This is a broad brush of winds, but individual severe storm cells can produce 60 to 70 mph gusts.

Rainfall Potential

This is subject to individual storm cells. The odds are a range of 0.50” to 1.00” rain, but as storm cells pulse along that line, there will be spots that are below and above those marks.

Jet Stream Forecast: Wednesday March 5 to  Sunday March 9

The surge of cold air will be followed by a winter-looking pattern.

Weekend Snow Storm? I Don’t Think So

The set up with the cold air is not seen the same way between the European and GFS Models.

The ECMWF has consistently shown no storm, while the GFS has been trying and then losing a coastal snow event. Like much of this winter, I believe this inconsistency in model projections has low confidence. That is why I have NOT played this up like you may have seen on other pages.

7 Day Forecast

After the severe storms pass, colder winds will flow back in.

This weekend may bring showers with a mix of rain and snow… I remain skeptical of much more.

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March Madness: History of Extreme Weather and Late Season Snow

Click here for the full report:

SNOW REPORTS THIS SEASON

Click on the maps for that full report.

Just A Bit Outside Feb 19

Brief Recap Of The Record Snow For Virginia and the abrupt change from the longer range potential track.

February 11 Snow Report And Grade My Forecast

click here or the map for more

January 19 Snow Report

January 11 Snow Report

January 6 Snow Report

Previous Snow

November 22 Snow Report

ALSO SEE

Recent Snow Reports

La Nina Advisory January 2025

Full Report

MY WINTER OUTLOOK

My Winter Outlook Report

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In Case You Missed This

The Faith In The Flakes Dec 5 Origin Story

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF