Tuesday Evening Update
The timeline for snow arrival worked out pretty well this afternoon. In comparison of the short range models, this part has the NAM 3 Km performing better than the HRRR. I will show both in this report for the end of this system.
Our latest Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories remain in place as snow will continue through tonight. This update shows a snapshot heading into the evening and final calls for snowfall from various computer models.
Most areas below freezing. Untreated roads and where snow intensifies will begin to get very slick.
Ready snow has reached central Maryland. Heavy snow Is falling across Southern Maryland, while lighter snow is falling north into Southern Pennsylvania.
The intrusion of warmer air has brought sleet and freezing rain to Richmond and Southeast Virginia.
Part 1: Snow Tuesday mid day/Afternoon ends after midnight.
Wednesday Morning should be a dry break.
Part 2: Wednesday Evening Freezing rain and rain turns to all rain overnight. Ends Thursday morning with temps above freezing.
This model has so far performed better then the HRRR Model with the arrival of the snow.
Sleet mixes in to parts of Washington DC and Central Maryland near Annapolis and Baltimore. Southern Maryland may turn over to rain for a few hours.
Some places that does mix to sleet or rain in Southern Maryland will turn back to snow before this ends.
Steady snow will end with snow showers lingering.
The NAM based this snow to flurries, but the HRRR Model has more upper level energy to keep a band of light snow across Central Maryland.
This is a wild card. My suggestion is that if there is falling snow the accumulation will be minimal at this time.
Let’s Compare Baltimore from highest to lowest and see that my Call For Snowfall still fits this range:
This was my forecast Monday and I kept this as my final call.
The point I want to make is that the snow across Northern Maryland and Southern Pennsylvania is where I have 2 to 4 inches. Some areas farther north may be closer to 2″.
I see this developing with a mix north and rain in the southern areas that got heavier snow and sleet. The northern areas will turn to rain overnight.
A brief period of freezing rain may develop across The Harford Zone and Souther PA, and colder inland valleys. During this time, rain develops for much of the rest of the region.
Most of the region will wake up to rain and temps above freezing. Roads will be wet and snow will be melting.
A rain storm will pull warmer air in Saturday and Sunday, the arctic air arrives at the end. It will turn colder and could set us up the yet another storm with snow next week.
Light snow may begin across Souther Pennsylvania, then turn to all rain with warm air filling in. Sunday looks like a warmer day with moderate to heavy rain.
to start with temperatures on Monday morning to help show the transition back to the influence of the Polar Vortex.
This violates my protocol to not show storms beyond 7 days.
This is also very different than it looked yesterday. I DO NOT TRUST THIS FORECAST on its face. However, the atmosphere is trying to produce something in this active environment on the edge of the Polar Front. It is worth watching and it will change daily until we narrow the focus within 5 days.
Click on the maps for that full report.
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
