February 11 2025
Tuesday Morning Report
Today is the day we start our two storm event. There is a lot to cover and still some conflicting information. I have lots of maps to compare but also want to simplify the explanation. I hope my highlight bullet points help break it down.
In essence, the snow begins today from south to north. Much of Central Maryland to Southern PA will get the snow gradually during the afternoon. It will stick and be most impactful through tonight.
Part 1 should be over by Wednesday’s sunrise, but Part 2 will try to develop during the day.
Tomorrow brings another system that may try to develop during the day with a wintry mix, then trend warmer with rain.
This weekend we have another storm that may start with snow in PA, but mostly rain Saturday afternoon to Sunday.
Polar Air will follow Monday morning, AND yet another winter storm could reach us next week.
Winter Storm Warning reaches through Washington, Annapolis, and as far north in Maryland as Howard County and BWI. Heavier snow and a mix of sleet tonight are expected.
I-70 and I-68 are roughly the point that that marks the Winter Weather Advisory with lower snow totals farther north.
I kept this the same from yesterday and only added the highlights for sleet mixing in.
Sunrise at 7:03 AM
Sunset at 5:40 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 26ºF
Record -6F in 1899
Normal High in Baltimore: 46ºF
Record 72ºF 1887
Baltimore Seasonal Snow
8.9”
DROUGHT UPDATE
Rainfall Deficit at BWI
Ending 2024 = -8.00″, since Jan 1 = -2.00
So we are down -10.00,” including last year!
This complex Two-Part Storm System is taking form.
There is cold and dry air on the north side, which is why the northern edge of snow may only reach into Southern Pennsylvania.
Sleet is likely to mix into Central Maryland. Temperatures will be above freezing in the heavy snow zone. This will make for very heavy and slushy snow, which will compact and affect final totals.
I have mentioned the HRRR Model doing a better job over the weekend with the delayed icing. Here is a comparison. The HRRR Model plays the cold and dry air to the north up stronger.
I will focus on Wednesday’s Weather Separately Below
I decided to keep my second call from yesterday. I do believe most of this will hit the mark, but more than likely on the lower end. The heavy snow zone will mix with sleeting rain in Southern Maryland. If any place breaks 10 inches, it will be in central and Western Virginia.
This may be performing the best, showing the wintry mix across the same heavy snow zone.
This may be too high in the high snow zone… if they get more sleet and rain mixing in.
I believe this is too cold and too far south.
The high snow zone is too high.
This is another challenge as the second event will be developing during the day, and temperatures will trend warmer.
If there is a mix of snow or sleet, it will trend warmer and turn to rain.
This will be a warmer track. Snow may begin Saturday morning in PA, then turn to rain.
Rain will be heavy on Sunday, then the Polar Air will arrive at the end.
The influence of the Polar Vortex will send deep arctic air into the US, Well Below Zero across the Northern Plains.
Teens reach Central Maryland.
20s and 30s into the Southeast US.
This is again violating my policy to not show storms beyond one week. However, in this very active pattern AND with arctic air, I want to help prepare that one more event could affect us with snow and ice.
This is a vague overview from the European Model.
This will likely have adjustments as we get closer.
Focus on the snow Tuesday into Wednesday morning.
Then Freezing Rain to Rain Thursday…
More will be in the pipeline as we watch the Polar Vortex’s influence in the week following this time window.
Click on the maps for that full report.
Severe Weather: Storm Smart October and next spring Winter Weather FITF (Faith in the Flakes): November To March Click to see more and send a request for your school.
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
