Tuesday Afternoon, February 4, 2025
The expected sleet and freezing rain on the way are more certain with the alerts now issued by the National Weather Service. An Ice Storm Warning is for the high mountains, where heavier icing will occur. A Winter Weather Advisory is for much of the rest of our region, including the cities along I-95, plus Central Virginia northward into Central Pennsylvania.
The timing continues to be focused after dark on Wednesday night through the Thursday morning commute.
How much ice there is with combined sleet and freezing rain is subjective based on which model is given more credibility. In this case, the American Models GFS and NAM 3Km are still producing the highest amounts. The European ECMWF is lower and more in line now with the National Weather Service forecast.
Below is the comparison of ice forecasts from these computer models AND The National Weather Service Forecast Offices.
We will not be measuring ice as easily as we would snow depth. The real issue will be how much ice can accrue on tree branches and powerlines to cause a problem.
As for the totals, there may be areas over 1/4 inch, which can break some branches and lead to some power outages. Two things to keep in mind with an ice storm:
Honestly, this can be confusing. There will be more ice that can weigh heavier and take longer to melt farther west and north.
Ice Storm Warning: Up to 1 inch of sleet and 0.3” of freezing rain (Maryland Mountains)
This is similar to the forecast for Central PA; however, they are under a Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory (MD and VA): Up to 1” sleet and 0.10” to 0.20” Freezing Rain
These are suggestions, not promises:
The wintry mix of sleet or freezing rain depends on the thickness of warm air in the middle of the atmosphere. An inversion is a layer of warm air sandwiched between colder clouds and colder ground. Snow may form in the clouds, then fall and melt, then have a chance to freeze again on the way down.
Sleet = Melted snow, then refreezes to ice pellets on the way down.
Freezing Rain = Melted snow can not refreeze in time, but it will on contact with the ground. It falls like rain, then ices on the surface of anything it touches.
This is the COLDER SOLUTION, it has a more widespread and heavier impact.
This solution has less total ice but still enough to be impactful. It also does not show significant sleet, so I think it may be missing some of the storm elements.
Click on the maps for that full report.
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