February 4 Wintry Mix Develops Wednesday Then Freezing Rain Through Thursday Morning

February 4 2025

Tuesday Morning Report

One more quiet day and then the Cold Air Damming event begins tomorrow. This will lead to a wintry mix developing Wednesday afternoon and evening, turning into just freezing rain Thursday morning.  Another weekend ice event is expected on Saturday to end as rain on Sunday.

DROUGHT UPDATE

Rainfall Deficit at BWI

Ending 2024 =  -8.00″, since Jan 1 =  -1.69

So we are down -9.69″, including last year!

Morning Temperatures

Morning Surface Weather

A cold front is quietly moving through the Eastern US. This will set us up with the colder air for the ice storm.

Forecast Temperatures

Tuesday afternoon to Thursday Morning…

Storm Forecast Thursday Morning

We can see how the cold air damming sets up in the Mid-Atlantic region. Cold air wedged between the mountains and ocean will lock in while warmer air brings rain aloft, developing the ice mix.

Winter Precipitation

The wintry mix of sleet or freezing rain depends on the thickness of warm air in the middle of the atmosphere. An inversion is a layer of warm air sandwiched between colder clouds and colder ground. Snow may form in the clouds, then fall and melt, then have a chance to freeze again on the way down.

Sleet = Melted snow, which refreezes to ice pellets on the way down.

Freezing Rain = Melted snow can not refreeze in time, but will on contact with the ground. It falls like rain, then ices on the surface of anything it touches.

Today: Afternoon Temperatures

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY February 4

Sunrise at 7:10 AM

Sunset at 5:31 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  25ºF

Record 5ºF in 1918

Normal High in Baltimore: 44ºF

Record 72ºF 1991

Baltimore Seasonal Snow

8.9”

WEDNESDAY WEATHER

Morning Temperatures

Radar Simulation

Light snow will develop in southern PA, and then the icy mix will expand north from Virginia through Maryland in the evening.

Noon Snapshot

Afternoon Snapshot

Afternoon Temperatures

Night Turns Icy

9 PM

Midnight

Thursday Morning Icy Weather

Concern for an ice storm! A few hours of Freezing Rain may be very troublesome. Even when temperatures warm above 32F, it will take a few hours for the ice to melt.

Close Up Snapshots

7 AM

10 AM

1 PM

We will thaw in the afternoon. Historically, models do a poor job with ice and bring the warm air in too fast…

Also, even after temps rise, it will take hours for the ice to melt.

4 PM

Winter Precipitation POTENTIAL Forecasts

GFS Sleet

Like we had Sunday night, this is a bear, and with freezing rain to follow, it will add to the ice thickness on the ground.

GFS Freezing Rain

This is the COLDER SOLUTION, where there is a more widespread and heavier impact.

Weekend Repeat:

Both models show another round of Wintry Mix To Freezing Rain on Saturday, ending with rain on Sunday.

7 Day Forecast

Wednesday: Return of the colder air with a light mix possible.

The focus will be the freezing rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Atmospheric Memory: The storm pattern will try to repeat again this weekend with more freezing rain.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF