Monday Night February 3 2025
I think its time to call this what it is. We will have an ice storm. It will not be the worst, but it will be the most impactful in a few years. I have high confidence that Wednesday night into Thursday morning cold air damming with an overrunning event will lead to extending sleet and freezing rain. Basically the cold air will stay close to the ground, while a storm bring water moisture at clouds level. I am very confident that it will lead it travel problems and likely impact schools on Thursday morning.
The details are coming into better focus. In all reality, there is less stress from a forecasting point with an ice storm over a snow storm because its less likely to stick a ruler in the ice. The thing that is most important will be the timing for the start and the end. As for the totals, there may be areas over 1/4 inch, which can break some branches and lead to some power outages. Two things to keep in mind with an ice storm:
This high resolution simps holing on to the overrunning band of snow in parts of Pennsylvania. There may be a stripe affecting Harrisburg, York, Lancaster, and even Philadelphia with a coating to a few inches.
The freezing rain moving in from Virginia and Maryland will arrive after sunset.
I trust this model is close to within 1 to 2 hours. Note, this mode is the one that accurately showed the sleet and freezing rain Sunday night.
The wintry mix of sleet or freezing rain depends on the thickness of warm air in the middle of the atmosphere. An inversion is a layer of warm air sandwiched between colder clouds and colder ground. Snow may form in the clouds, then fall and melt, then have a chance to freeze again on the way down.
Sleet = Melted snow then can refreeze to ice pellets on the way down.
Freezing Rain = Melted snow can not refreeze in time, but will on contract with the ground. It falls like rain, then ices on the surface of anything it touches.
The latest on the Chesapeake Bay shows that it will have little impact on the cold air that will develop across the region. This is important because if this was earlier in winter, the Bay areas would be more protected by warmer water.
Both the GFS and ECMWF Models show us in the ice at daybreak. I wanted to contrast these to show the agreement. I am still sticking with the GFS Model sine it was first to show this and most consistent as well. The ECWMF Model has ben playing catch-up.
The GFS holds the cold and ice longer across metro areas in central Maryland. The Euro on the other hand lifts the water air north of Baltimore by daybreak. Again, this may be too soon.
The air will be warming near and above freezing. This is an example of the model struggling depict when the thaw will advance north.
We should be in the thaw by then.
This is a low confidence and low impact part. The High Resolution NAM is holding on to the overrunning snow in Southern PA. Even though the GFS lost this, I still buy into it…
Like we had Sunday night, this is a bear and with freezing rain to follow, will add to ice thickness on the ground.
This is the COLDER SOLUTION, there there is more widespread and heavier impact.
This solution has less total ice, but still enough to be impactful.
A glaze of ice = Travel Problems.
0.10” Ice = Moderate Icing And Some Branches May Fall
0.25” to 0.50”+ Ice = Trees and Power Lines start to have more breaks. This would be widespread disruption.
Thicker ice also means longer time to thaw. So temps could warm, but a few additional hours would be needed for melting to allow for safe travel.
In short: This is the worst weather to travel in, you can’t play in it, and there is a high chance for school impact Thursday.
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