February 2 Groundhog Day Call From Phil For More Winter And We Plan For A Mid Week Ice Storm

February 2 2025

Sunday Morning Report

Chilly air has returned with a new air mass. A clipper is spreading snow across the Great Lakes, which will affect travel in Central Pennsylvania later today.

We can expect a warm-up for two days, then a Cold Air Damming event may lead to an ice storm Wednesday into Thursday. Also, the expected Polar Vortex Split starting next weekend… So I see more winter this month. More on that below.

Groundhog Day

Despite clouds from today’s system in place across Punxsutawney PA: Phil The Groundhog was honored in the annual Groundhog Day Celebration.

In front of 50,000 people, he called for:

6 MORE WEEKS OF WINTER!

I have reasons to agree (shown below)

His History As shown by The National Weather Service….

He calls for Winter to last 6 weeks more often AND has a track record lower than flipping a coin = 30%.

DROUGHT UPDATE

Rainfall Deficit at BWI

Ending 2024 =  -8.00, since Jan 1 =  -1.59

So we are down -9.59, including last year!

Morning Temperatures

A very cold air mass has established in the region and will hold today.

Morning Surface Weather

A clipper is pushing a band of snow across the Great Lakes. This snow will stay mostly north of the region; however, it will spread clouds early in the day and keep our temperatures chilly.

Afternoon  Temperatures

Remaining chilly under cloud cover.

Radar Simulation 7 AM to 7 PM

Some light icy mix or snow will possibly reach Western Maryland and Southern PA.

Traveling will be an issue if you are traveling north of the PA Turnpike.

Tonight

Be prepared for light sleet or snow north of the PA Turnpike in Pennsylvania through the Poconos and metro New York. Freezing rain is possible from Altoona to Punxsutawney.

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY February 2

Sunrise at 7:12 AM

Sunset at 5:29 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  25ºF

Record 1ºF in 1961

Normal High in Baltimore: 44ºF

Record 71ºF 1967

Baltimore Seasonal Snow

8.9”

MONDAY WEATHER

Morning Temperatures

Afternoon Temperatures

Mid-Week Ice Storm?

The concern is an Arctic Air Mass in Eastern Canada that will have temperatures well below zero… spreading cold air along the surface into the Mid-Atlantic. We would get this by Wednesday morning… just as a new storm spreads warmer air at cloud level. The result would be a wintry mix of precipitation that eventually turns into a wide area of freezing rain and an ice storm.

Wednesday Morning Temperatures

Wednesday Morning Set-Up

This Cold Air Damming, once established, will be very difficult to budge….

Storm Animation:

GFS Model: 7 AM Wed to 7 AM Fri

Close Up

Wednesday Afternoon

The GFS Model is most aggressive, with this precipitation arriving early and starting with snow and sleet. If so, it will be light.

Thursday Morning

Concern for an ice storm! A few hours of Freezing Rain may be very troublesome.

ECWMF Model

This model is warmer and farther north with the cold air. I need to state that this model has been playing catch up to the GFS, which has been leading the way with this event.

Thursday Afternoon

The cold air and ice are expected to retreat north to the Poconos with a heavier snow event in New England.

Looking Ahead

I have shown the NOAA warm outlook AND La Niña Advisory. But like last month, I do not think La Niña is strong enough to impact us fully. The Polar Vortex is projected to try to repeat its influence mid-month…

Polar Vortex

Currently a strong and high circulation, locking the cold air up to the north. This is forecast to split into two pieces or sister vortices over the next two weeks. The stronger, larger one drops south into Canada and affects the Eastern US by mid-month…

Stratosphere: This map is at the 10 mb level, roughly 50,000 Ft in altitude.

Snapshot Feb 8 (1 Week)

7 Day Forecast

A warm-up to start the week, then we will see if that Cold Air Damming Ice Storm event develops Wednesday into Thursday.

The Polar Vortex Impact… would begin next weekend, just starting at the end of this forecast period.

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La Nina Advisory January 2025

Full Report

MY WINTER OUTLOOK

My Winter Outlook Report

ALSO SEE

Recent Snow Reports

SNOW REPORTS THIS SEASON

Click on the maps for that full report.

January 19 Snow Report

January 11 Snow Report

January 6 Snow Report

Previous Snow

November 22 Snow Report

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF