February 1 2025
Saturday Morning Report
The rain event yesterday underperformed. The net result of rain at Baltimore’s BWI was 0.48”. It was welcome, but the water table is still very low, including the drought from last year.
January (for our region) did produce more snow than average, but lower rainfall total. Here are the monthly numbers:
Rainfall Deficit at BWI
Tomorrow is Groundhog Day. The scouting report on Phil shows that he predicts a longer winter 78% of the time and is wrong more than 50% of the time… But he did call for early spring the last two years. I’ve been told that he is always right; it has been a translation problem with his handlers that has led to all the errors.
Recently, I showed the NOAA Warm Temperature Outlook AND La Niña Advisory. In this report, a look at the Polar Vortex forecast to SPLIT AND DROP SOUTH mid month. I stand by my focus that La Niña is not going to dominate our weather pattern, even if it looks like it this week. Winter is going to make a return during this month.
The latest storm is moving away from the coast. The new air mass is cooler, and the gusty winds are building as it moves in.
Stronger winds will gust 20 to 30 mph and temps will get colder..
The high temp may be closer to noon, and then it’ll get cooler.
Sunrise at 7:13 AM
Sunset at 5:28 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 25ºF
Record 7ºF in 1965
Normal High in Baltimore: 44ºF
Record 75ºF 2002
Baltimore Seasonal Snow
8.9”
This is Groundhog Day, and it is expected to be cloudy in Western PA. Based on tradition, that should mean that Phil calls for an early spring…
While there will be a warm-up early in the work week, model support for a wintry, icy mix midweek with the next storm system is there. Whether it will have an impact will depend on the timing of the day, and there is also no full agreement on this.
In the last two days, I showed the NOAA warm outlook AND La Niña Advisory. But like the last month, I do not think La Niña is strong enough to impact us fully. The Polar Vortex is projected to try and repeat influence mid-month…
Currently, a strong and high circulation is locking the cold air up to the north. This is forecast to split into two pieces or sister vortices over the next two weeks. The stronger, larger one will drop south into Canada and affect the Eastern US by mid-month…
Variable weather from a chilly weekend to a big warm-up Monday and Tuesday. I am holding the chance for some ice to start the mid-week storm. Just watching with interest, but no promise of impact…
The Polar Vortex Impact… would begin next weekend AFTER this forecast period.
Click on the maps for that full report.
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
