Thursday Night January 30 2025
Yes, the title of the report is correct. We have a Severe Drought. Well, in reference to Baltimore, the Bay region of Maryland, and along the Mid Atlantic coast. This is an Extreme Drought in Southern New Jersey.
This may seem hard to imagine after the snow and deep freeze we have most of this month. But leading up to it we had brushfires and lots of drought talk ending last year.
The irony is that the snowfall at BWI is 8.9 inches, which is actually 2.8 inches above average for the month (and year) to date. But rainfall is still short.
Regardless of the mud in your yard from the recent snow melt, and rain on Friday… The water table is low. The water on the Chesapeake Bay is low. So while we my get moderate to heavy rain on Friday, it will be a small dent in a big problem.
Low Pressure is moving out of the Lower Mississippi River Valley. The overrunning band of rain has reached Virginia tonight and will be expanding across the region overnight.
It will be wet by morning.
The only cold air nearby may hold on in the morning for freezing rain in The Poconos of northeast PA.
Track the rain here. It should update while you visit this page.
Tonight Through Saturday Morning
The morning commute shovel be wet across the region. There my be a few hours of freezing rain in the Poconos of Northeast PA.
They heaviest rain will be passing through mid day around lunchtime.
The band of rain will shift to affect near and north of Baltimore through Pennsylvania. Meanwhile Southern areas between Washington, Annapolis, and Southern Maryland will get a few dry hours.
A surge of mild air should peak in the late afternoon and early evening.
The band of rain will shift south and last through the night towards the coast.
The rain will end by morning.
In the case of the three I show here, we will still average between 0.50 and 1.00 inch for most areas. The chance for higher rain will be up to 2 inches in the high mountains of West Virginia.
I tend to lean on the model in the middle. Here is the range from lowest to highest.
The NOAA Outlook for early February does focus on a very warm Eastern US. I see a kink in the ridge and the recently advertised La Niña Advisory. The cold air will try to move in next weekend, and I see a distinct return to winter during the second week of February.
Well Above Average
Warm, but the colder will be expanding across the Northern and Central US.
It is important to note that I the the average for that period. It does not represent how it will start or end.
I believe it is safe to say it will start warm, but end much cooler than suggested above.
The warm ridge will get knocked down in the second week of the month.
My Verdict:
Winter is NOT DONE! There is more to the story, but I have shared a lot of info here. I do believe the Polar Vortex has tightened, but will wobble and drop again. We saw something similar in 2014 when the arctic blast in January was matched in early March. This may not be a repeat, but the multiple variables that lined up recently may try to do so again for the second half of February and early March. This may be enough to overtake the weak La Niña.
Click on the maps for that full report.
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
