January 19 Snow Report And Grade My Forecast

Monday January 20 2025

The winter weather event that crossed the Mid Atlantic states on Sunday was the precursor of a Polar Air Mass invading much of the nation. While it was cold before it arrived and bitterly cold to follow, there was a brief warm up in between and that seemed the make the difference.

Baltimore’s BWI reported 1.0 inch of snow. My forecast there was 2 to 4 inches. That can be seen as a bit or off by just one inch from the zone, or one half of the call which makes it seem worse.

The seasonal total is now 8.9 inches of snow, which is above average pace.

Washington DC Area

• Reagan National = 0.3”
• Dulless Airport = 1.4”

See more snow repots below.

Reading through comments on social media, there were a lot of people who said I got the forecast right and there were also a lot who said this was a disappointment or just a Bust!  Some even just flat out told me I suck!  Really, I was right AND wrong, but that does not matter if you are in the area that got less snow. You probably do not care what I measured or anyone else because that does not apply to you.

I had been following this system for just over a week and there was anticipation for a big impact. In all of my analysis, explanations, models, and even contrasting with The National Weather Service.  I have taken account of what I got right AND what I got wrong. I will address those here as they may explain a little more than just the maps.

In this report, I have quite a few maps, a list of storm spotter reports below, and most importantly my assessment of what went right and wrong in my analysis shared with you over the last week.

As always I would like for you to go back to my social media and let me know what you think of my forecast:

Pass

• The overall timing was good. However I initially said sunrise to start, but changed it the day before to a 9 AM to Noon start.
• The window for heavy snow I called correctly between 2 PM and 6 PM
• The Winter Storm Warning areas were in a 4 to 6 inch snow band, and I included bursts up to 7. Some went higher.
• I got the call correct in the high mountains.
• Moderate to heavy snow fell in Philadelphia during the Eagle home playoff game.

Fail

• I did miss the delay of the freezing temps. This was later.. So the longer time of wet roads really hurt people who canceled morning or mid day plans.
• The net result of snow totals in metro areas was lower:
• Many in my 2 to 4 inch range ended up with 1 to 3 inches.
• Annapolis and along Rt 50 corridor it just was too warm, I was wrong because the rain did’t change to snow until later and they were under the low end of my zone, and under 1 inch.

My biggest mistake:

I was openly favoring the Canadian Model for days. It has showed me in 2014 to do the best job with storms in a polar air pattern. It was best with the delay of the freezing and keeping the rain line through Baltimore later.  But I caved to the GFS and European Models dragging the cold air through sooner. I came up with a blend of all and added the southern bias considering the snow form the prior two events favored southern areas.

My Grade For Myself

The overall region (not just your house):

C+

Digging Deeper

Three Hours And 30 Miles Made The Difference

• We had three hours with snow and sleet that did not stick. This was due to a delay of the colder air.  The net result was roughly 30 miles north with snow totals compared to my snow forecast bands.
• The thing that really sticks out with this storm is  that it was developing right on top of us.
• Time and location were critical.
• The Canadian Model did the best job for the three days leading up to the storm with the location of the warmer air and rain line. This was not perfect because in the cold zone it predicted nearly double the snow that actually fell.
• This model was matched by the HRRR model in the short range (within one day). I showed both in my various reports.
• The highly reliable European ECWMF Model did the poorest job with the polar air. It brought that too far south and had nearly all of Maryland in snow.
• The GFS Model was in the middle and did a decent job, but it was also too far south with the Polar Air.
• Most of the time when polar air is on the move, it will arrive later than forecast. Even out a few hours, which is why many storms can bust right along the I-95 corridor.

Snow Spotter Reports

This is the map only from the NWS Sterling VA Office. The PA and Delmarva numbers are on additional maps below.

My Final Call For Snowfall

I made this map on Saturday Morning, the day before the storm…

Again: If my 1 to 3 inch range was 30 miles north, the other zones pushed north, that would have worked out better. But the mountains and high spots in the warning zone worked.

Closer Maps Locations

Central Maryland

Capital District To Front Ridge

Western Maryland Mountains

Top spot in the state: Grantsville = 12.5″

Southern Pennsylvania

Delmarva and Metro Philadelphia

See the list form spotters below

Snow Spotter Reports

**********STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL (AT LEAST 0.1 INCH)**********

LOCATION                TOTAL      TIME/DATE  COMMENTS               

                     SNOWFALL       MEASURED

                     (inches)               

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

  Catholic University     0.8   736 PM  1/19  NWS Employee           

Reagan National Apt     0.3   700 PM  1/19  Official NWS Obs       

Dulles International    1.4   700 PM  1/19  Official NWS Obs

MARYLAND

…Allegany County…

  Potomac Park 2 NW       5.6  1213 AM  1/20  Dept of Highways       

  Bellegrove 1 SSE        5.5   700 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Frostburg 2 ENE         4.5   544 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Ridgeley 1 NW           4.0   541 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Brady 1 W               3.1   700 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

…Anne Arundel County…

  Severn 1 W              1.0   635 PM  1/19  Public                 

  Baltmore-Washington     1.0   900 PM  1/19  Dept of Highways       

  Bwi Airport             1.0   700 PM  1/19  Official NWS Obs       

  Glen Burnie 1 WSW       0.7   554 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Birdsville              0.6   900 PM  1/19  NWS Employee           

  Parole                  0.5   900 PM  1/19  Dept of Highways       

  Crownsville 3 SSW       0.3   800 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

…Baltimore County…

  Reistertown 2 NW        3.0   930 PM  1/19  Co-Op Observer         

  Bentley Springs 6 S     3.0   900 PM  1/19  Dept of Highways       

  Bentley Springs 1 E     2.6   700 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Oella 2 NNE             2.3   435 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Reisterstown 1 NW       2.2   500 PM  1/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Rosedale 1 E            1.5   900 PM  1/19  Dept of Highways       

  Randallstown 2 NW       1.5   632 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Long Green 2 NW         1.5   800 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  White Marsh 2 E         1.4   830 PM  1/19  Updated total          

  Perry Hall 1 NNE        1.4   705 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Owings Mills            1.2   700 PM  1/19  Dept of Highways       

  Kingsville 1 E          1.1   830 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Edgemere                1.0   545 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Fullerton 1 N           1.0  1000 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

…Baltimore City…

  Pikesville 3 SE         1.5   800 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Pimlico  SE             1.2   505 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Baltimore 2 SW          0.6   515 PM  1/19  NWS Employee           

…Calvert County…

  Prince Frederick 1 S    0.5   900 PM  1/19  Dept of Highways       

…Carroll County…

  Taneytown               4.8   802 PM  1/19  Public                 

  Millers 4 NE            4.3   908 PM  1/19  Co-Op Observer         

  Westminster 1 NNE       4.0   900 PM  1/19  Dept of Highways       

  Westminster             3.6   830 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Westminster  SE         3.2   530 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Gamber 1 WNW            2.6   912 PM  1/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Watersville 1 N         2.1   620 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Sykesville 1 NNW        2.0   430 PM  1/19  NWS Employee           

…Cecil County…

  Elkton 2 W              3.0   900 PM  1/19  Dept of Highways       

…Frederick County…

  Middletown              7.0   700 PM  1/19  Broadcast Media        

  Myersville              5.5   700 PM  1/19  Broadcast Media        

  Smithsburg 3 SE         5.5   650 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Bloomfield 2 WSW        4.8   745 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Ballenger Creek 1 E     4.0   900 PM  1/19  Dept of Highways       

  Thurmont 1 NE           3.8   940 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  New Market              3.5   635 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  New Market 2 NW         3.3   700 PM  1/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Ballenger Creek 1 NN    3.2   615 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Libertytown 2 W         3.1   427 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Frederick 1 SE          3.0   440 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Mount Airy 1 WSW        2.8   935 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Buckeystown 3 SW        2.7  1000 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Point Of Rocks 1 NE     2.6   850 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

…Garrett County…

  Grantsville 5 W        12.5  1213 AM  1/20  Dept of Highways       

  Mc Henry                9.0   950 PM  1/19  Dept of Highways       

  Oakland 5 NW            8.6   804 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Accident 4 E            7.6   451 PM  1/19  Public                 

  Grantsville 7 WNW       7.2   700 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

…Harford County…

  Norrisville 1 WSW       4.0   630 PM  1/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Churchville 1 SE        2.3   900 PM  1/19  Dept of Highways       

  Bel Air                 2.3   900 PM  1/19  Other Federal          

  Chrome Hill 2 SE        2.1  1040 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Fallston 3 N            1.6   800 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Bynum 1 E               1.3   811 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

…Howard County…

  Gaither 2 SSE           2.8  1100 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Sykesville 2 SSE        2.8   800 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Gaither 2 SSW           2.5   904 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Dayton 1 NE             2.5   900 PM  1/19  Dept of Highways       

  Simpsonville            1.5   943 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Historic Ellicott Ci    1.2   624 PM  1/19  NWS Employee           

  Ellicott City           1.0   808 PM  1/19  Broadcast Media        

  Elkridge 2 W            0.8   800 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Jessup 2 WSW            0.5   700 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

…Montgomery County…

  Damascus 3 SSW          3.0   750 PM  1/19  Co-Op Observer         

  Poolesville             2.0   620 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Clarksburg              2.0   441 PM  1/19  Emergency Mngr         

  Laytonsville            2.0   523 PM  1/19  Other Federal          

  Silver Spring           1.8   900 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Gaithersburg 1 E        1.6   432 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Germantown 1 SE         1.5   803 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Gaithersburg 1 SW       1.5   500 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Gaithersburg 2 E        1.5   525 PM  1/19  NWS Employee           

  Glen Echo               1.0   441 PM  1/19  Emergency Mngr         

  Rockville 1 SSE         0.8   800 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Norbeck 1 ESE           0.8  1000 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Glenmont 1 SW           0.7   630 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Rockville 2 SE          0.5   707 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Takoma Park             0.5   441 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

…Prince Georges County…

  Greenbelt 1 N           1.3   510 PM  1/19  CoCoRaHS               

  College Park 1 S        0.7   700 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

…St. Marys County…

  Clements 3 E            0.1   900 PM  1/19  Dept of Highways       

…Washington County…

  Sabillasville 2 NNW     8.1   730 PM  1/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Boonsboro 3 NNE         6.6   730 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Hagerstown 7 E          6.2  1030 PM  1/19  Public                 

  Funkstown 2 WSW         6.0   900 PM  1/19  Dept of Highways       

  Funkstown 1 WSW         5.9   633 PM  1/19  Public                 

  Hancock 1 ESE           5.8   700 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Fairplay 3 ENE          5.8   700 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Pecktonville 3 NNW      5.8   714 PM  1/19  NWS Employee           

  Long Meadow 2 W         5.3   930 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

  Maugansville  WSW       5.0   500 PM  1/19  Trained Spotter        

…Pennsylvania…

…Adams County…

Carroll Valley               7.0 in    0800 AM 01/20   Trained Spotter

1 SW Mcsherrystown           6.1 in    0710 PM 01/19   Trained Spotter

Littlestown                  6.0 in    0833 PM 01/19

1 WSW Cashtown               5.6 in    0540 PM 01/19   CO-OP Observer

3 N York Springs             5.5 in    0530 PM 01/19   Public

Elizabethtown                6.9 in    0800 PM 01/19   Trained Spotter

1 ENE New Holland            6.3 in    0830 PM 01/19

Ephrata                      6.2 in    0930 PM 01/19   Public

1 E East Petersburg          6.0 in    0745 PM 01/19

2 NNE Mount Joy              5.8 in    0500 PM 01/19   Trained Spotter

3 N Millersville             5.8 in    0827 PM 01/19   Public

3 NNE Terre Hill             5.6 in    0850 PM 01/19   Public

1 WSW Akron                  5.5 in    0628 PM 01/19

1 E Lancaster                5.5 in    0837 PM 01/19

2 W Lancaster                5.3 in    0700 PM 01/19

1 NNW Manheim                5.3 in    0956 PM 01/19

Millersville                 5.3 in    0730 AM 01/20   Trained Spotter

2 W Lancaster                3.5 in    0500 PM 01/19

Millersville                 3.3 in    0500 PM 01/19   Public

..York County…

2 SW Spring Grove            7.8 in    0730 PM 01/19   Trained Spotter

3 WNW Emigsville             7.5 in    1000 PM 01/19   Public

3 WNW Emigsville             7.5 in    0958 AM 01/20   Trained Spotter

2 SE Siddonsburg             7.0 in    1000 PM 01/19   Trained Spotter

2 NE Emigsville              6.5 in    1010 PM 01/19

2 SE York                    6.3 in    0823 PM 01/19   Public

1 NW Windsor                 6.2 in    1100 PM 01/19   Trained Spotter

1 WSW Emigsville             6.0 in    0700 PM 01/19   Trained Spotter

Red Lion                     6.0 in    0721 PM 01/19

1 NNW Stonybrook             5.6 in    0900 PM 01/19   Emergency Mngr

Glen Rock                    5.0 in    0530 PM 01/19   Public

New Salem                    5.0 in    0830 AM 01/20   Trained Spotter

Hanover                      3.0 in    0300 PM 01/19   Public

Recent Snow Reports

SNOW REPORTS THIS SEASON

Click on the maps for that full report.

January 11 Snow Report

January 6 Snow Report

Previous Snow

November 22 Snow Report

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ALSO SEE

Arctic Outbreak For January

If you missed it, here is my detailed report from December 30 about why this IS A BIG DEAL!

MY WINTER OUTLOOK

My Winter Outlook Report

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In Case You Missed This

The Faith In The Flakes Dec 5 Origin Story

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF