Tuesday January 14 2025
With the anticipation of one of the coldest air masses in years on the way, there will be some active weather. I want to address a few things in this report, which had two reasons behind it:
Let’s take a look:
The next impulse will bring light snow into the region. This will result in snow showers, but there is potential for a band of light, steady snow to produce a coating or mini accumulation.
Here is the forecast animation from Thursday Night to Sunday Morning. This will help show the how the light rain on Saturday will move through, allowing for colder air to follow.
Heading in to the weekend, warmer air will flow in to the Mid Atlantic. This will develop rain showers before the next round of cold air arrives.
The leading edge of Arctic air will be crossing the Northern Plains and dropping to both the Gulf Coast and East Coast of the US.
This map does reflect temperatures around 18,000 Ft. I need to clarify that the actual Polar Vortex is not represented here, and it will be in Southeastern Canada. The ‘Influence’ will be pushing the core of arctic air into the US and our way.
As this arctic air interacts with the frontal boundary, it will develop a cluster of light snow and freezing rain. This is the region to watch to grow and move to the Northeast.
Here we get the idea of the cold air contained. While we will be just in to the freezing air, single digits and below zero temperatures will continue to move out way…. It will take a few days until the coldest of the air reaches the East Coast.
I am using the European ECMWF Model based of being the most reliable all winter with this time frame.
Here we see that impulse of snow tracking directly over metro Baltimore, Central Maryland, and the Mid Atlantic.
If this plays out, there will be snow starting mid day that could last into the night.
Temperatures will be in the 20s or colder, so the snow will be light and all that falls can stick. However, it is too early to talk accumulation numbers. I reserve the first look for 72 hours ahead… If this holds I will give my first call for snowfall on Thursday.
NOTE: This is the time of the Ravens game, so watch parties may need a backup plan.
The Euro Vs the GFS Model… Which has not shown good performance (so far) in the 5 day forecast window. Then why show it? Well, many weather apps use this model, so it may reflect what is on your phone. I also still hold out options since no computer guidance is correct all the time.
Here we will see the this first impulse of Sunday snow… then as the arctic air hits the Gulf Coast, a new storm can form.
If this does play out, then it has the potential to ride the jet stream on the edge of that arctic air up the East Coast.
If this does occur, the timing for snow could be Wednesday into Thursday.
This is an ideal major snowstorm season set up AND I do not believe it (yet)
NOTE: This is a 210 Hour Forecast, longer than 1 week away. This is beyond my comfort zone and not in my policy to show. I am posting here in this article for posterity. I will not show on social media until we hit that 7 day window.
If this does hold, then the model will get a lot of credit. However, I expect there will be some adjustment based on timing of energy along the way.
My guess is that there will be something different that occurs… Often we end up with a storm earlier than first shown…
I will be making changes in each model run for both timing and if this trends in any direction with track.
Valid Jan 21 to Jan 27
Click on the maps for that full report.
If you missed it, here is my detailed report from December 30 about why this IS A BIG DEAL!
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
