December 14 Cold Tries To Hold For Ice Storm Sunday In The Mountains And Rain East By Evening

December 14, 2024

Saturday Morning Report

The very strong High Pressure we discussed yesterday is holding. It has kept the cold in place and a dry day, but some clouds have filtered in across PA.

The cold will hold for some mountain areas as the next storm arrives. This will result in an ice storm with some areas of snow farther east between the continental divide and the front ridge. I’ll show that below, but this includes travel impact for I-81.

East into metro areas, we expect rain Sunday evening, then a warm-up with more rain systems into midweek. The colder air will follow by the end of next week and weekend.

Local Morning Temperatures

Morning Surface Weather

The very strong High Pressure responsible for our dry air AND cold temps… also blamed for many aches and pains is holding. But it is dirty and there has been a band of clouds in areas north of Baltimore through PA.

The sun should take over today.

The next storm is developing, with a swath of ice across Iowa. The ice will be an issue in the areas where the cold holds on Sunday across the central Appalachians.

Afternoon Temperatures

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY December 14

Sunrise at 7:19 AM

Sunset at 4:45 PM <— Sunsets will get later, while sunrises will continue to get later as well. Days get shorter for one more week.

Normal Low in Baltimore:  30ºF

Record 11ºF in 1960

Normal High in Baltimore: 48ºF

Record 71ºF 1881; 1929; 2015

Baltimore Drought Update

• 7.34 inches BELOW AVERAGE rainfall since September 1st
• 7.82 inches BELOW AVERAGE rainfall since January 1st

SUNDAY DECEMBER 15

COLD AIR DAMMING

The cold will lock in within the mountain valleys, allowing a start of ice and snow… Travel will be affected near and west of I-81. Metro areas will benefit from a later arrival time, resulting in chilly rain by evening.

Wide View Then Closer Look

Wide View

Sunday Morning to Tuesday

Cold Air Damming: Locks in the deeper layer of cold near and just east of the high mountains to allow for ice and snow.

The second system will bring rain overnight on Monday to Tuesday morning.

Sunday Morning

Sunday Evening

Close View

Morning Temperatures at 7 AM

Noon Snapshot

Freezing Rain and the start of an ice storm in Garrett County and parts of West Virginia.

Radar Simulation Noon to Midnight

An ice storm will continue across the highest mountains. A region to the east will have moderate snow for a few hours, including near I-81. Then, that area will turn to a mix and primarily be rain into metro areas by evening.

Afternoon Temperatures at 3 PM

Evening Snapshot

Travel North on Rt 15 and I-81 into PA may be difficult in the evening. Frederick to Baltimore should be just a chilly rain.

Wednesday Afternoon to Friday Afternoon

This round of rain will be followed by colder air and mountain snow. The subtle instability does not show, but there will be energy to produce flurries east of the mountains.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK

Focus on the Jet Stream because the surface storm plots are not reliable this far away…

After the rain and warm-up, a shot of very cold air arrives by the end of next week. This will dominate the Eastern US by the end of next weekend.

Sunday Morning

The coldest air is expected to end the weekend. Freezing temps may reach parts of Florida.

7 Day Forecast

Sunday will be the most complex day, with ice and snow in the mountains and rain by evening in the metro areas.

Warming with rain next week. It will not be all rain but rather a few impulses for a few days.

Colder end of the week may come with flurries.

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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

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