Tuesday Afternoon Update Dec 10, 2024
This midweek storm will be powerful. The fast winds at jet stream level will be racing North at 150 mph (18,000 Ft). This will charge the system and enhance both the warming and rainfall. We need the rain, but the back side will feature colder air.
In this report, I want to give a brief rundown of the storm and look closer with a high-resolution model. I hope to show the change to snow, but a delay in cold air will allow for a window to get some slush or wet roads, and there is still some icing to follow.
The signal in the models has been that it will catch up in time for a snow burst that may last an hour or two. I continue to see that the temperatures will be above freezing when it arrives for the inland suburbs west and north of Baltimore.
Note: There will be moderate snow in the mountains during the afternoon, with road travel delays.
7 PM Wed to 7 AM Thu
Note: I have been focusing on the ECWMF Model for a few days and still believe it has a better handle. The GFS has been consistent with the snow burst into Central Maryland.
Locally in Central Maryland and surrounding areas will have the peak activity mid-afternoon and evening.
I want to focus on the high-resolution NAM 3 Km Model, but I need to point out some biases.
With this in mind, we still may see a burst of snow for 1 to 2 hours…
With the model error, this may be more like the 6 PM view….
This will be a few hours after the precipitation ends….
With the model error, this may be more like 1 or 2 AM. However, the freezing line may still reach Frederick and Westminster, MD, to York, PA, by midnight.
My concern is for wet roads that may still have a chance to freeze. If not the roads, there may be some sidewalks, elevated steps, and decks that can ice over.
There is roughly an 8-inch deficit for the year, so this will help but not end the drought.
I am saving this for last because the snow accumulation will be minimal. We did have stickage in those colder areas last Thursday (reminder below), which occurred while temperatures were above freezing. So, this is possible again in the same areas.
This is using the Kuchera Technique that accounts for different ratios of liquid to snow based on temps, etc.
Temps were above freezing.
Note: I will have a look at the European Model and any updates in my report tonight.
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