November 16 Pattern Change From Mild Weekend To First Local Mountain Snow Next Week

November 16, 2024

Saturday Morning Report

We are due for a change, and it will show up in the next seven days. After the warmest and driest Fall on record to date, the drought has peaked. We will continue to add to the needed rain, with a larger storm on the way next week.

This event will be preempted by another stretch of very mild air, followed by a dramatic cool-down. That flip of the jet stream will bring the first accumulating snow of the season to our local mountains… including western Maryland.

Tropical Storm Sara is still slowly crawling along the Honduras coast. It will move inland and dissipate, causing deadly flooding. This is better news, indicating a diminished tropical risk for Florida.

Baltimore Drought Update

• 7.11 inches BELOW AVERAGE rainfall since September 1st
• 7.57 inches BELOW AVERAGE rainfall since January 1st

Map Updated Thursday, November 14

Morning Surface Weather

The setup appears quiet, but as a new air mass builds in, there will be strong winds today.

Temperatures will remain mild, but the pattern change is just starting to gather and will move east from the Rockies.

Tropical Storm Sara remains located along the coast of Honduras. It will continue to produce life-threatening rain/flooding. It is NOT expected to be a major issue for the US.

Wind Forecast 7 AM to 7 PM

Wind Forecast At Noon

Afternoon Temperatures

The core of the cool air will settle in despite the sunshine.

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY November 16

Sunrise at 6:52 AM

Sunset at 4:51 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  36ºF

Record 19ºF in 1933; 1996

Normal High in Baltimore: 57ºF

Record 76ºF 1928; 2005

SUNDAY NOVEMBER 17

Morning Temperatures

Wind Forecast at Noon

Afternoon Temperatures

EXTENDED FORECAST

GFS Model Next Wednesday To Friday Night

The developing storm will bring moderate rain to the Eastern US, then end as snow in the mountains.

Snapshot Thursday Morning

Moderate to Heavy Rain will start the day and then move north. The wrap-around winds will bring in colder air and turn to snow in the mountains.

Snapshot Friday

Rain ends with a burst of snow and the first accumulation of the season in the mountains, including Western Maryland.

Jet Stream Animation Wednesday, Nov 20 To Next Tuesday, Nov 26

Snapshot Friday Afternoon

Snapshot Sunday

Tropical Storm Sara

This has nearly stalled along the coast of Central America and dumped 10 to 30 inches of rain. The results will be deadly mudslides and flooding.

It will move inland and dissipate. Longer range models have it continuing to curve back over water and into Florida… but as a general low-pressure center or just a tropical depression.

National Hurricane Center Update

• LOCATION…16.1N 86.3W
• ABOUT 25 MI…40 KM SE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
• ABOUT 160 MI…255 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
• PRESENT MOVEMENT…STATIONARY
• MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…999 MB…29.50 INCHES

National Hurricane Center Forecast Tracks

Computer Model Forecast Tracks

Computer Model Forecast Intensity

This is not expected to regain strength and will NOT reach Florida as a hurricane.

7 Day Forecast

BIG CHANGE ON THE WAY

A stretch of warm weather could see temperatures reaching close to 70ºF for a few days.

Rain develops Wednesday night into Thursday… followed by colder winds and the first snow in the mountains.

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Also See

La Nina Watch Update: November 2024

FOUR SUPERMOONS OF 2024

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF