La Niña Watch Update From NOAA November 2024: Weak And Short Event
November 14 2024 NOAA still has a La Niña Watch in place. The latest odds are 57% chance for conditions to develop by December and last into early 2025. Expectations…
Wednesday, November 14 2024
Tropical Storm Sara was just named in the Western Caribbean. With a minimal 40 mph wind speed, it will hug the Central American coastline and make landfall in Honduras, then track inland this weekend.
The track crosses the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and then enters open waters again. There may be some potential for the storm to regain some strength, but this is not the storm that was originally shown on models.
I do not hype early projections for tropical systems because we do not know their true potential until there is a defined Low plotted. Now that we have that, the path further south and more inland will limit their capabilities.
Tropical Satellite
The bulk of activity will be over Honduras. With the slow movement and enhancement from the mountains there is a general expectation for 10 to 20 inches of rainfall, with spots up to 30 inches.
Tropical Storm Force Winds reach 70 miles from the center.
National Hurricane Center SUMMARY OF 1 PM EDT
- LOCATION…15.7N 82.9W
- ABOUT 205 MI…330 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
- ABOUT 50 MI…85 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
- MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
- PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
- MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…999 MB…29.50 INCHES
Tropical IR Satellite Loop
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The northern coast of Honduras from Punta Sal eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border
National Hurricane Center Forecast Track
It will be downgraded to a Tropical Depression this weekend and is expected to return over water by Monday night or Tuesday. If it has a chance to regain some strength it may be then, but chances at this time are low.
Computer Model Forecast Tracks
Beyond day 5, there is an expected emergence into the open, warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and a turn towards Florida.
Computer Model Forecast Intensity
There is a chance this downgrades to a depression and then regains some strength back to Tropical Storm intensity. The odds of a hurricane by the time it gets to Florida are small.
Interactive Windy Widget
Recap Of The 2024 Atlantic Tropical Season So Far:
Named Storms
- Alberto June 19 to 20; Peaked As Tropical Storm
- Beryl June 28 11; Peaked As Cat 5 Hurricane
- Chris June 30 to July 1; Peaked As Tropical Storm
- Debby August 3 to 9; Peaked as a Category 1 Hurricane
- Ernesto August 12 to 20; Peaked As Cat 2 Hurricane
- Francine September 9 to 12; Peaked As Cat 2 Hurricane
- Gordon September 11 to 17; Tropical Storm
- Helene September 24 t0 27; Cat 4 Hurricane. Landfall with 140 mph winds
- Joyce September 27 to 30; Tropical Storm
- Kirk September 29 to October 7; Cat 4 Hurricane: Ocean with 145 mph winds
- Leslie October 2 to October 12; Cat 1 Hurricane
- Milton October 5 to 10; Cat 5 Winds 180 mph
- Nadine; October 19 to 20; Peak 60 mph
- Oscar October 19 to 22; Cat 1 Winds 85 mph
- Patty November 2 to 4; Peak 65 mph
- Rafael November 4 to 10; Cat 3 winds 120 mph
- Sara November 14 to …
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Also See:
La Nina Watch Update November 2024: Weak and Short Lived Event
FOUR SUPERMOONS OF 2024
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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
