November 7 Record Warm Morning Cooler Weekend AND Hurricane Rafael Update

November 7, 2024

Thursday Morning Report

We are just on the edge of a cold front that will transition our weather back to reality for the weekend. However, after a record high of 81ºF in Baltimore yesterday, we start this morning with another record for warm minimum.

The temperature dropped to 63ºF at 3:45 AM and has since risen ahead of sunrise. The record warmest ‘low temperature’ on this date was 62ºF in 1938. If we do not cool back to that mark by midnight, this would set a new record. Hint: It will be comfortably mild if you are going to the Ravens game tonight.

For comparison, the ‘average’ low temperature for this date is 39ºF. So we are about 25 degrees above average.

Temperatures at 6 AM

Baltimore Drought Update

The new map will be issued today and I will share it this afternoon.

• No Measurable Rain Since October 2nd = 36 Days!
• There was a ‘trace’ on October 4th and November 1st.
• Rainfall DOWN -6.66” since Sep 1

Morning Surface Weather

The cold front that will end this round of heat may still bring a ‘sprinkle,’ but the drought will continue.

While the low temperatures are still reminders of late summer, cooler air will be filtering in over the next few days behind that cold front.

Farther west we see that snowstorm has shifted south of Denver into New Mexico.

Hurricane Rafael passed Cuba as a Category 3 storm. This morning, it is down to a Category 2 and moving into the central Gulf of Mexico… The latest track keeps it well south of the US, so it has less potential to help with our need for rain.

I want to focus on the Hurricane first, then the local weather and extended forecast below.

Hurricane Rafael Satellite

• Hurricane-force winds reach only 30 miles from the center.
• Tropical Storm force winds reach 115 miles from the center.

National Hurricane Center Update at 4 AM EST

• LOCATION…24.2N 84.6W
• ABOUT 155 MI…250 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
• ABOUT 180 MI…285 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH…165 KM/H
• PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
• MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…969 MB…28.62 INCHES

Tropical Satellite Loop

Forecast Intensity

Forecast Tracks

Computer Model Spread

There is a lot of uncertainty with this storm, so the timing and location of landfall have low confidence.

National Hurricane Center

NHC keeps the storm center farther south of New Orleans.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

* Dry Tortugas

LOCAL WEATHER

Afternoon Forecast Temperatures

Still well above average but starting to come back down a little.

RAVENS GAME TEMPS THIS EVENING:

Lower 60s

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY November 7

Sunrise at 6:42 AM

Sunset at 4:59 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  39ºF

Record 22ºF in 1962

Normal High in Baltimore: 60ºF

Record 81ºF 2022

FRIDAY NOVEMBER 8

Cooling down a little as the breeze will increase to usher in the new air mass.

Morning Lows

Wind Forecast 8 AM to 8 PM

Snapshot at Noon

Afternoon Highs

Weekend Outlook

Saturday Morning

High Pressure settles in. This should bring a mostly sunny sky and seasonably cool temperatures.

ECMWF Model Forecast: Saturday to Monday

This is the model that seems to agree with the National Hurricane Center and keeps Rafael well south. This limits the added moisture in the next weather system. So the rain on Sunday evening will be limited.

Sunday Morning

A dry and chilly start, but good news for the Bay Bridge Run.

Sunday Night

The rain chance will be later in the day and towards the evening. As we can see, the moisture looks split. Some areas may get more rain, while pockets of dry air could hold it off for others… So, there are no promises for wet weather. The rainfall will be light, with up to 0.25” possible.

7 Day Forecast

Cooler this weekend and remaining more seasonable with the warming next week. However, there still’s not much rain in sight.

Subscribe for eMail Alerts

FIRST FROST DATES

Here are the average dates across Maryland, and they match the advisories we saw last week.

Click this image to see more details across Maryland and Pennsylvania.

FOUR SUPERMOONS OF 2024

Click here for more

Please share your thoughts and best weather pics/videos, or just keep in touch via social media.

• Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist

• Twitter

• Instagram

SCHEDULE A WEATHER BASED STEM ASSEMBLY

Severe Weather: Storm Smart October and next spring

Winter Weather FITF (Faith in the Flakes): November To March

Click to see more and send a request for your school.

THANK YOU:

Baltimore Magazine Readers Choice Best Of Baltimore

Maryland Trek 11 Day 7 Completed Sat August 10

We raised OVER $104,000 for Just In Power Kids – AND Still Collecting More

The annual event: Hiking and biking 329 miles in 7 days between The Summit of Wisp to Ocean City.

Each day, we honor a kid and their family’s cancer journey.

Fundraising is for Just In Power Kids: Funding Free Holistic Programs. I never have and never will take a penny. It is all for our nonprofit to operate.

Click here or the image to donate:

RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF