October 24 Windy And Cooler But Another Warm Up And Remaining Dry: Elevated Fire Danger

October 24, 2024

Thursday Morning Report

I am growing very concerned that the lack of weather may become the weather story. The stretch of very nice sunny days over the last three weeks came after 11 days in a row of rain. There is no rain in sight over the next week, and if we now add in the falling foliage with a blanket of dry leaves, there will be an increased risk of wildfires.

Over the next week, we will have some cooler days, matched with more warm-ups that could push us to record highs next week… even on Halloween. Each swing will come with gusty winds… only adding to the ground evaporation and dry conditions.

FIRE DANGER

Red Flag Warning = The highest fire danger is in New Jersey.

Elevated Fire Danger – Most of the region. The high winds and low humidity increase the chance for any flame flaring up to spread!

With only two days of rain early in the month… we are down 5 inches since September 1, and now falling leaves are adding potential kindling… Any flame may quickly flare up.

This can start from bonfires to tossing a lit cigarette butt (yes, some people still smoke).

Drought Update

This map was from last week. It will be updated today and I expect the drought colors will expand to more areas.

The conditions are very dry for much of the region. A Severe Drought has been developing in the mountains from Western Maryland to West Virginia.

Extremely dry conditions on Delmarva will continue to grow in the week ahead.

Baltimore Stats:

Rainfall

• -2.98” for the month
• Only had measurable rain on October 1 and 2
• Part of 11 days in a row from Sep 22 to Oct 2

DOWN

• -5.03” since Sep 1

Morning Surface Weather

While we remain dry, a flow of new air masses will swing our temperatures a bit. A push of cooler air will be met with a few more warm-ups.

Wind Forecast 8 AM to 8 PM

Wind Snapshot at Noon

Afternoon Forecast Temperatures

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY October 24

Sunrise at 7:26 AM

Sunset at 6:15 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  43ºF

Record 25ºF in 1969

Normal High in Baltimore: 65ºF

Record 82ºF 2001

FIRST FROST DATES

Here are the average dates across Maryland, and they match the advisories we saw last week.

Click this image to see more details across Maryland and Pennsylvania.

FOUR SUPERMOONS OF 2024

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FRIDAY OCTOBER 25

Just Dry! This is the theme. The lack of weather is the weather story.

Morning Low

Afternoon High

LOOKING AHEAD

Saturday Weather

Remaining Dry AND Windy!  There will be another push of cooler air… just on the edge from Canada… so the weekend temps will be dropping.

Animation: Saturday to Tuesday

No rain! Even the cold front arriving Saturday now looks dry. So I removed the chance of rain.

Temps will swing a bit, mostly in the afternoon range in the 60s… with 50s inland. Next week, we will warm up again.

Tuesday

Another push of warm air as High Pressure sets up will pump in more dry air on a Westerly wind, bringing back the 70s for one more stretch.

7 Day Forecast

No rain in sight! Temps will be a bit of a roller coaster, but nothing extreme. However, next week temps will be back up to the upper 70s and maybe near 80 by Halloween (next Thursday).

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF