October 19 Weekend Warmup And Tropical Storm Nadine Formed

October 19, 2024

Saturday Morning Report

The chilly air is still with us this morning, but we have graduated from the record cold and are about to start a big-time warm-up this weekend. Digging deeper into the record books, I found some very interesting things about this date:

October 19 in 2015 = Record Low of 29ºF

ONE YEAR LATER

October 19 in 2016 = Record High of 87ºF

Also, on this date in 1940, Baltimore received its earliest snow event, with 1.3” falling between the 19th and 20th of October.

This time around, we have sunshine with High Pressure in control, which will actually keep our local weather uneventful, with the exception of watching the thermometer rise close to 80ºF in a few days.

TROPICS:

Tropical Storm Nadine has formed and been named, and it is NOTHING like what you may have seen on TicTok! Where are they now??

This storm is in the Western Caribbean and will STAY AWAY FROM THE US. Yesterday I posted about a new tropical ‘invest’ north of Puerto Rico. That still has not done much,

More on the storm track below…

Tropical Satellite

• LOCATION…17.4N 87.1W
• ABOUT 75 MI…115 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
• ABOUT 110 MI…175 KM SE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
• PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
• MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES

Satellite Loop

TRACKING AWAY FROM THE US

When we look at this morning’s surface weather in greater detail, we can see how large the High Pressure in the Eastern US is. The clockwise circulation keeps us stable and dry and steers storms around.

In this case, it enhances the Tropical Flow from East to West, which is forcing the storm on a westward track into Central America near Belize.

Forecast Track From The National Hurricane Center.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

* Belize City, Belize to Cancun, Mexico, including Cozumel

LOCAL Morning Temperatures

There is a Frost Advisory in place but it has retreated to Frederick County in MD and the Southern PA counties. Since they have already had a few this week. I am skipping that map.

Morning Surface Weather

HIGH AND DRY! This is a large air mass, and it locks on us for the foreseeable future—at least until the middle of next week. There will be another cool-down by Thursday and Friday.

Afternoon Forest Temperatures

Sunshine will get us back close to 70ºF

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY October 19

Sunrise at 7:21 AM

Sunset at 6:21 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  45ºF

Record 29ºF in 2015

Record Snow 0.4” (plus 0.9” on the 20th)

Normal High in Baltimore: 67ºF

Record 87ºF 2016

FIRST FROST DATES

Here are the average dates across Maryland, and they line up on schedule with the advisory in place this morning.

Click this image to see more details across Maryland and Pennsylvania.

FOUR SUPERMOONS OF 2024

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SUNDAY OCTOBER 20

Clear sky and quiet weather.. only the thermometer to watch.

Morning Low

Afternoon High

LOOKING AHEAD

Monday Jet Stream

The ridge of High Pressure will begin to pump in even warmer air into the Middle of next week.

Animation: Monday To Friday

This will keep us dry with a warm-up each day through the middle of next week.

The next shot of colder air will arrive on Thursday. Similar to last week, it will create a spin off the East Coast and form a storm just offshore.

Thursday Jet Stream

The core of the upper-level source of cold air will pass through. The surface cold may lag behind another day.

7 Day Forecast

Very quiet weather for the week and warming up close to 80ºF! The return to cooler more seasonal weather will arrive Thursday and Friday.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF